America mixed. Friday Morning Joe. 27 February, 2015.

February 27, 2015 Leave a comment

American Major Indices:

SP500 -0.15%, Dow Industrials -0.06%, Nasdaq +0.42%, Russell 2000 +0.32%, New York Composite -0.32%.  Major movers:  Techs up, Energy down.

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 8.38.22 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for SP500:

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 8.44.16 AM

SPX was down marginally.  Range again was narrow (less than 0.5%.  RSI, CCI and MFI all slipped out of overbought conditions sliding under those benchmarks.  This is often a sign that further falls will come.  But we need to see the chart slip into the dark yellow BBs (20/1) and an increase in the range before declaring the start of a pull-back.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 8.42.51 AM

A Tale of Two Commodities.  Energy down -3.07%.  IMs up +1.15%.  These two groups are often taken as measures of economic activity.  The forces of supply/demand governing their movements.  In the case of Energy, however, it is the supply side of the equation which seems to be dominating.  I thought yesterday the pull back in energy might be over – but those thoughts were squashed today.

Precious Metals up +0.74%.   GLD +0.32%.  U.S.$ +1.04%

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP -1.31%.  Rio +0.26%.  Westpac -1.11%.  ANZ -1.22%.  EWA -1.34%.  Ozzie Dollar -1.04%.  Most of the weakness in ozzie shares due to a weaker Australian dollar.

Woolworths reported this morning.  It looks likely it will be smashed after less than stellar comments by management about future prospects.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Maybe. Could be. Might be. Thursday Postprandials. 26 February, 2015

February 26, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO down -0.61%.  That breaks a run of three days up.  That’s about par for the course.  The range today was the widest we’ve seen in the past five days.  So, maybe, could be, we just might be starting an acceleration to the downside.

Here’s the XJO chart:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 9.33.41 PM

Today’s candle is a bearish engulfing candle.  Does it matter much that the past few days have been narrow range days, and today’s range is only just a little bigger?  I dunno.  This could still be part of a consolidation process.

The chart has also dipped marginally into the dark yellow Bollinger Bands (20/1).  MACD Histogram has gone negative.  All indicators are pointing down.

So ….  the loss of momentum in the past few days has now translated into a minor move to the downside.  You know the snowball effect.  That could be what we’ll see here.  We’ll only know in retrospect.

But – let’s have a look at the Financials X-Property.  I’ve been suggesting that this is the essential link in the Australian market:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 9.39.09 PM

Today’s action looks suspiciously like a standard three day reversal pattern – which is fairly reliable.  But the action has been such narrow range – we have to withhold judgement.  Until the lower edge of the horizontal consolidation area marked on the chart is broken to the downside – it’s best to presume that this is more consolidation action.

Telstra has a habit of going into a blue funk after ex-dividend day (that was yesterday).  This looks like history repeating.

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 9.53.15 PM

Today’s action shows up as being oversold on the indicators, and the chart is back to the 50-Day Moving Average.  Some sort of upside reaction is likely here.  Just how good that will be is another matter.  I think we’ll see more downside in Telstra in the medium term.  I’ll be happy to be proven wrong.

Here’s another stock loved by the Mums and Dads.  WOW.  It reports tomorrow:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 9.57.29 PM

WOW has had a good run up from the lower end of the bullish falling wedge noted in mid-December.

It is now overbought.  It gave back a bit today.  Yesterday it hit overhead resistance and retreated.

The report tomorrow will have to be received very favourably to overcome the current overbought conditions.  But anything is possible.

Tomorrow should be interesting.  (Isn’t it always?)

I won’t put up the Gold Miners Chart today – just report that it remains in a tight sideways consolidation.  I’m waiting for a break one way or the other.

Redbacka.

Categories: Uncategorized

America Flat as a Pancake. Thursday Morning Joe. 26 February, 2015

February 26, 2015 1 comment

American Major Indices:

SP500 -0.08%, Dow Industrials +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.02%, Russell 2000 +0.09%, New York Composite -0.04%.  I can’t remember a time when all five major indices finished within a smidgin of their starting price.

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 7.33.09 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for SP500:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 7.39.27 AM

SPX remains in a strong uptrend, but the momentum is slowing.  Six out of the past seven days have been narrow range days.  On each of those days, the range has been less than 0.6%.  Such loss of momentum typically comes before a pull back, but, as we saw back in November, 2014, the Index can keep on ticking up slowly for much longer than we expect.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 7.56.25 AM

Energy had a strong day and the pull-back seems to be over.  Energy up +3.49%.  As a result, the CRB Index was up +0.76%.  IMs fell back moderately -0.48%.  Spot Iron Ore finally moved after five days sitting at 63.40.  It was down -0.8% to 62.90.  GLD up +0.38%.

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP +0.46%.  Rio -0.51%.  Westpac +0.03%.  ANZ +0.44%.  EWA +0.68%.  Ozzie Dollar +0.76%.  Given the strength in the Ozzie Dollar and yesterday’s modest rise in the XJO, those figures out of NY are not encouraging.

Today we should see some life breathed into the Energy sector.  WPL was hit hard yesterday, down -4.22%.  It should claw back a bit of that today.  The daily change in the XJO for the past five days has been less than 0.5%.  Modest to moderate at best.  I can’t see much hope of a bigger move today.  Last night I noted that the XJO was up against modest resistance set up on 19 February.  That might hold today.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

More Consolidation. Wednesday Postprandials. 25 February. 2015.

February 25, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO up modestly again today.+0.3%

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 10.22.37 PM

The Index is now knocking on the high set back on 19 February.  Volume increased today to about 110% of the 20-day Average.  Despite the increasing volume, today’s action was a narrow range day.  There’s a battle going on today between the bulls and the bears – but it ended in a draw with the bulls unable to push above short term overhead resistance.  Maybe they can do it tomorrow.  But a retreat from today’s line in the sand would be a blow to the aspirations of the bulls.

The MACD Histogram today went below zero.  That’s a negative for the bullish case.  But it might just signify the slowing in momentum in the market.  If we get an improvement in the MACD Histogram tomorrow – that would strengthen the bullish case considerably.

At the moment – this is in stalemate.

There is no equivocation in the Materials Sector:

xmj

This seems the start of the next leg up in the Materials Sector.

Here’s the chart for the Financials X-Property:

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 10.42.25 PM

This is the biggest sector in the market.  It continues in a sideways consolidation.  A break higher would be bullish.

Here’s the chart for the Gold Miners Index:

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 10.44.38 PM

The sideways consolidation continues – and it promises to make a big move in the near future.  Continue to monitor.

CSL is one of the heroes of the Australian market.  I was pessimistic about CSL’s prospects after it reported earlier in the month, but it has recovered nicely since then.  It is now back to an oblique rising resistance line.  Today it hit that resistance line and retreated a little.  Not a good sign – but not conclusive.

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 10.47.24 PM

A break above that rising oblique resistance line would suggest much higher levels.

Yesterday, WOW had a mammoth rise of 3%.  Today’s candle looks suspiciously like an evening doji star which could end the drive higher.  A big down day tomorrow would confirm.  The stock is at resistance and overbought.  Today’s action was not encouraging for further upside.

WOW reports on Friday.  The recent surge might be an anticipation of a surprisingly good report.  Such optimism is rarely rewarded.  Of course, those who love conspiracy theories would read much more into this.  Maybe they’re right.  Maybe not.

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 10.51.20 PM

And all of that analysis adds up to – not much at all.  Keep monitoring – we’re going to see some big action soon.

See you in the morning.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

America on the plus side. Wednesday Morning Joe. 25 February, 2015

February 25, 2015 Leave a comment

SP500 +0.28%, Dow Industrials +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.14%, Russell 2000 +0.17%, New York Composite +0.43%.

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 9.29.58 AM

Dow Industrials and NYA were the strongest of the major indices.  SPX up only modestly.  NAZ and R2K barely budged.  Not much action given that Auntie Janet spoke – but the media made plenty of it, as they always do.

Here’s the detailed chart for SP500:

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 9.34.05 AM

SPX remains in a strong uptrend.  Yesterday’s comments can be reiterated: “The Index is overbought on the MFI, but it usually needs a negative divergence before the Index falls.  It doesn’t have to be that way – but that’s what usually happens.  So there’s probably more in this.  The chart will tell us when the Index is starting a decline.  Look especially for MACD Histogram below zero and a fall by the chart into the darker yellow BBs.”

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 9.36.25 AM

CRB flat +0.13%.  Industrial Metals up strongly +1.51%.  Spot Iron Ore continues unchanged.  It’s been at 63.4 now for five days in a row.   Energy down modestly -0.37%.  GLD flat -0.15%.

Again – yesterday’s comments can be reiterated:  “I can’t see much happening in our market today.  Maybe down a bit.  Financials will be the key.  They continue to look weak and may be ready to pull our market into a retracement.”  I thought yesterday we might be down a bit.  We finished up a bit.  Maybe we’ll be down a bit today – but not much in it.

Redbacka.

Categories: Uncategorized

Moderate day up. Tuesday Postprandials. 24 February, 2015.

February 24, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO up +0.3% after being down in early trading. 50 Leaders up +0.4%. Mid-Cap 50 down -0.2%.  That discrepancy tells us that it was basically the big stocks (such as the four big banks and the two big miners) that kept the market afloat today.  This is confirmed by the volume figures.  The volume was about the 20-Day Average, but the UpVol/DownVol Ratio was strongly skewed to the Down Volume side of the equation.

xjo

This continues to look like a bullish consolidation (as I commented yesterday) – but at this stage of the trend with a mildly overbought RSI and a falling MACD Histogram, anything can happen.

I wouldn’t sell out. But I wouldn’t buy.

You can see on the chart how the Index has been riding up above the deeper yellow Bollinger Bands (20.1) since late January. If it falls into the deep yellow and MACD Histogram falls below zero – we’re probably in for a short term pull-back, or maybe just continuation of the sideways consolidation.

Here’s the chart for the Financials X-Property:

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.14.20 PM

XXJ has dipped into the deep yellow without a significant fall. The sideways consolidation has been in place since early February. This also can go either way. That neat consolidation rectangle on the chart should be taken as a guide for direction. Break upwards – further upside. And vice versa.

Here’s the chart for Materials (XMJ):

xmj

The short term pull-back appears to be over.   Today’s upside action suggests more to the upside.

Indicators are not so friendly. That’s not uncommon when momentum eases off. But the negative divergences which are setting up are cautionary flags.

I showed the chart for the Gold Miners Index yesterday.  Here’s an update.

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.25.45 PM

Nothing much has changed from yesterday.  We haven’t seen a “squeeze” on the BBs of this nature for a long time. Certainly nothing like it in the past two years.

Such events usually precede a big move, one way or the other.

XGD has been performing well compared to the POG in US$ terms. That suggests the next move will be up. If that happens, it should, again, be a solid tradable rally.

Two big stocks caught my eye today.  QBE and WOW.

Here’s the chart for QBE:

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.32.13 PM

“Holy Moly Batman.  What happened?  That’s a rocket,”   said Robin

“Yes Robin.  That’s what can happen when a stock issues its half-yearly report,”  said a smug know-it-all Batman.

“What should we do now?”  said Robin.

“Hmmm.” said Batman.  “Perhaps we should ask our Super-Hero Friend, Redbacka.  I’ll see if I can get him on the Bat Phone.”  One ring-i-ding-i.  Two-ring-i-dingi. Three ringi-dingi.

“Sorry Robin.  No answer.  He must be writing his nightly report.  He does get a bit obsessed.  Bless his Soul.  Maybe if we read his report in the morning we’ll know what to tell our stock broker.

Ooops.   Oh Dear.  It’s me, Redbacka.  I’m back.  Wheeeeee.

On to WOW.

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.42.08 PM

Woolworths had a jump of +3% today.

“Holy Moly, Batman.  Did Woolworths release its half-yearly report today?  That’s an amazing LEAP by Woolies.”

Batman replied, “Sorry Robin to disappoint you.  No, Woolworths didn’t announce its Report today.  That comes out on Friday.”

Robin:  “Well, Batman.  Why did WOW jump so much today?”

Batman:  “I haven’t a clue, Robin.  Maybe I should ask Spiderman to climb up to J.B.Were’s office at Level 16 in 101 Collins Street, Melbourne, break the outside window, climb in, and see what he can find out about what they’ve been doing.  Maybe he can find out – and let ASIC know.”

Drum beat. ……..  Only in the cartoons, folks.

Coming to you at a TV channel …………… sooon.  It’s gonna be on a par with the Simpsons.  :)

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Flat in America. Tuesday Morning Joe. 24 February, 2015.

February 24, 2015 Leave a comment

SP500 -0.03%, Dow Industrials -0.13%, Nasdaq +0.1%%, Russell 2000 -0.00%%, New York Composite -0.31%.

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.34.49 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for SP500:

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.44.52 AM

Not much to comment on today.  A narrow range day virtually flat.  The Index is overbought on the MFI, but it usually needs a negative divergence before the Index falls.  It doesn’t have to be that way – but that’s what usually happens.  So there’s probably more in this.  The chart will tell us when the Index is starting a decline.  Look especially for MACD Histogram below zero and a fall by the chart into the darker yellow BBs.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 9.48.44 AM

CRB down -1.24%.  Industrial Metals down -0.13%.  Spot Iron Ore continues unchanged.  Energy down -1.82%.  GLD up +0.13%.

I can’t see much happening in our market today.  Maybe down a bit.  Financials will be the key.  They continue to look weak and may be ready to pull our market into a retracement.

Redbacka.

Categories: Uncategorized
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