Saturday Morning Joe. 26 August, 2017.

August 26, 2017 Comments off

In Australia yesterday, STW (tracking ETF for XJO) was flat +0.09%.  Same old, same old.

Screen Shot 2017-08-26 at 9.56.49 AM.png

Looking at the 10-Day MA (solid black line), STW is in a slight upside trend.  The bottom indicator (ADX) is an indicator of trend.  At 9.19 that is flat.  Wait.

In U.S.

In America, the Jackson Hole Gab Fest for Central Bankers is underway.  Last night (our time) both the Janet Yellen (America) and Mario Draghi (ECB) spoke, but their talks didn’t move the stock markets in any major change. Major indices were generally flat, but R2K surprised with a modest rise.  RSI is below 50 on all indicators (bearish).

Major indices were generally flat, but R2K and NYA were modestly positive.  RSI is below 50 on all indicators (bearish).

Screen Shot 2017-08-26 at 10.07.36 AM.png

DJ +0.14%, Nasdaq -0.09%, SP500 +0.17%, NYA +0.32%, Russell2000 +0.26%.

Financials modestly positive +0.28%.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-08-26 at 10.14.10 AM.png

The SPX was flat  +0.17%.  The long upper tail indicates some intra-day selling pressure.  The Index remains below the 15-Day High/Low Band, so it remains in short term bearish territory.  Three indicators are on first level “buy” signals by breaking above their 5-Day MAs.  That’s not a strong signal.  Wednesday’s positive signal on the MFI has now been cancelled.  We need to see all four indicators move above their middle 20-Day MAs to be really confident, but we have a first indication that the bulls have gained some strength. Too many conflicting signals exist in this chart.  Wait.

Commodities:

DBC -0.2%. Energy -0.17%.  Industrial Metals -0.93%. Copper Producers ETF was up +0.31%. Gold +0.37%.

Once again, there’s not much in the overnight markets for Australia.  We’ll probably be range-bound again on Monday.

RB.

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Friday Morning Joe, 25 August, 2017.

August 25, 2017 Comments off

In U.S.

Major indices were generally flat, but R2K surprised with a modest rise.  RSI is below 50 on all indicators (bearish).

Screen Shot 2017-08-25 at 9.25.15 AM.png

DJ -0.13%, Nasdaq -0.11%, SP500 -0.21%, NYA -0.1%, Russell2000 -0.3%.

Financials flat+0.00%.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-08-25 at 9.36.18 AM.png

The SPX was down modestly  -0.21%.  The index is just inside the Ichimoku “cloud”.  That’s neutral.  The Index remains below the 15-Day High/Low Band, so it remains in short term bearish territory.  Three indicators are on first level “buy” signals by breaking above their 5-Day MAs.  That’s not a strong signal.  Yesterday’s positive signal on the MFI has now been cancelled.  We need to see all four indicators move above their middle 20-Day MAs to be really confident, but we have a first indication that the bulls have gained some strength. Too many conflicting signals exist in this chart.  Wait.

Commodities:

DBC -0.07%. Energy -0.41%.  Industrial Metals +0.55%. Copper Producers ETF was up +0.93%. Gold -0.31%.  Iron Ore -1.2%.

Yesterday the miners gave the Australian market some respectability.  We can expect much of the same today, but largely rangebound.

RB.

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August 24, 2017 Comments off

XJO +0.1% and STW (tracking ETF) +0.13% were flat today.

Screen Shot 2017-08-24 at 7.17.08 PM.png

Directional Movement Index is showing a sideways trend.  We have to continue to wait.

The big winner from reporting season today was Flight Centre:

Screen Shot 2017-08-24 at 7.21.56 PM.png

FLT up +10.66% to a three year high.  More upside seems likely.

Woolworths continues to struggle after reporting yesterday.  WOW down today -3.41%

Screen Shot 2017-08-24 at 7.28.26 PM.png

Until last week, WOW was my preferred exposure to the big supermarkets.  That switched in my last weekly report – where I was neutral about WOW and WES.  This week’s action seems certain to push WES back into prominence.

RB.

 

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Thursday Morning Joe. 24 August, 2017.

August 24, 2017 Comments off

In U.S.

Major indices show an inside day indicating indecision.  RSI is below 50 on all indicators (bearish) except the Dow Jones.

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 9.19.21 AM.png

DJ -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3%, SP500 -0.35%, NYA -0.16%, Russell2000 -0.13%.

Financials down -0.32%.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-08-24 at 9.19.13 AM.png

The SPX was down modestly  -0.35%.  The index remains above the Ichimoku “cloud”.  That’s a bullish move.  The Index remains below the 15-Day High/Low Band, so it remains in short term bearish territory.  All four indicators have given first level “buy” signals by breaking above their 5-Day MAs.  That’s not a strong signal.  We need to see all four indicators move above their middle 20-Day MAs to be really confident, but we have a good first indication that the bulls have gained strength. Too many conflicting signals exist in this chart.  Wait.

Commodities:

DBC +0.88%. Energy +1.17%.  Industrial Metals +0.28%. Copper Producers ETF was up +1.18%. Gold +0.38%.  Iron Ore -1.18%.

Yesterday, despite good overseas results, the XJO pre-empted last night’s moves in the American market.  We can expect that we’ll be lower today, but largely rangebound.

RB.

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August 23, 2017 Comments off

XJO down -0.22%.  STW, a tracking ETF for the XJO, was down -0.24%.

Here’s the STW chart:

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 10.03.33 PM.png

Here’s the XJO chart:

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 10.14.19 PM.png

News from overseas markets overnight was very positive, and a bullish open was expected.  The STW chart shows that bullish opening, but then it quickly gave ground.

What happened?  Who knows.  The pundits in the local press will point to a variety of occurrences in our local environment.

Looking at off-market charts for the U.S., their market started going down around 9.00 a.m. our time.  That’s the reason our market went down.  Our market followed down.  We don’t know why the American started on the downside – but it did.  Our market got taken down with it.

What we do know is that our market was rejected, once again, at overhead resistance.

Until that gets broken decisively to the upside, it’s best to wait on the sidelines.

RB

 

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Wednesday Morning Joe. 23 August, 2017.

August 23, 2017 Comments off

In U.S.

Major indices were all up strongly.  A four day reversal pattern (big down day, two doji candles, big up day) has occurred.

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 9.19.21 AM.png

DJ +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.36%, SP500 +0.99%, NYA +0.73%, Russell2000 +1.09%.

All sectors were positive.  The weakest were both defensive sectors, Consumer Staples +0.02% and Utilities +0.22%.  Technology and Financials were both up >1%.  That structure indicates a switch into risk-on assets.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-08-23 at 9.28.07 AM.png

The SPX finished up  +0.99%.  Today’s action has taken the chart above the Ichimoku “cloud”.  That’s a bullish move.  Two indicators CCI and RSI9 have given first degree “buy” signals by breaking above their 5-Day MAs.  That’s not a strong signal.  We need to see all four indicators move above their middle 20-Day MAs to be really confident, but we have a good first indication that the bulls have gained strength.

Commodities:

DBC +0.27%. Energy +0.68%.  Industrial Metals -0.17%. Copper Producers ETF was up +1.97%. Gold -0.45%.  Iron Ore +0.9%.

We’ll be positive today and there is a good possibility that the long sideways trend will finally be broken to the upside.

RB.

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Tuesday Evening Thoughts. 22 August, 2017.

August 22, 2017 Comments off

The Australian market had a positive day with the XJO up +0.42%.  STW, a tracking ETF for the XJO, was up +0.61%.

Screen Shot 2017-08-22 at 9.02.54 PM.png

No change has occurred in the sideways trend.

Accumulation/Distribution suggests that accumulation is taking place.  The odds favour an upside break.

BHP announced its results today before the market opened.  The market responded warmly.  BHP up +1.09%.

Screen Shot 2017-08-22 at 9.08.44 PM.png

More upside seems likely for BHP which is a positive for the market.

The other “biggie” watched today was CBA.  It was up a little coming off horizontal support:

Screen Shot 2017-08-22 at 9.41.56 PM.png

That’s not enough to indicate that the downtrend has ended, but the positive divergence on the MFI10 suggests we’ll see more upside in the near future.

RB.

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