Intra-day Selling In the U.S. Saturday Morning Joe. 1 August, 2015.

August 1, 2015 Leave a comment

Major Indices, Europe and America

Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 10.51.40 AM

DAX +0.46%, UK +0.41%, France +0.72%, Italy +0.61%.  Once again, the Europeans are showing evidence of intra-day buying, but it’s not being translated into “ooomph” on the following day.  Promises, promises?

Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 10.54.27 AM

The American indices, while the Europeans were showing intra-day buying, the Americans were showing intra-day selling, which came after the Europeans closed. DJ30 -0.32%, SP500 -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.01%, New York Composite +0.00%, Russell2000 +0.54%.
Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 10.33.54 AM

The DJI is showing weakness at the first line of resistance.  The three-day candle pattern doesn’t quite qualify for a bearish reversal but it is close.  This is, at least, a measure of nervousness in the market.

Breadth Indicators did, however, improve.  R2K was positive.  NH/NL Ratio was above 50%.  The NYSE Bullish Percent (another measure of breadth) also improved.
Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 11.02.17 AM
These are all positive signs which suggest we may have seen the lows in this pull back.  BPNYA still has a lot of work to do to be really convincing.
US$ and Hard Commodities:
Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 11.05.00 AM
U.S.$ fell but showed strong intra-day buying.  All the commodities in these charts show intra-day selling.  Base Metals were hard hit, down -1.54%.  Energy also suffered -2.08%.  Gold was up -0.63% but well off its highs.

Those figures are indicating a poor opening for our Miners on Monday.

RB

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Last Day of the Month. Friday Morning Joe, 31 July, 2015.

July 31, 2015 Leave a comment

Major Indices, Europe and America

Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 10.12.47 AM

DAX +0.4%, UK +0.57%, France +0.58%, Italy +0.63%.  A better performance by the Europeans in this session than the previous session.  After a poor opening, intra-day buying gave respectability to the final figures.

Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 10.18.16 AM

The American indices, except for the Nasdaq which eked out a modest gain, were generally flat, after being down sharply after the opening.  So there was solid intra-day buying. DJ30 -0.03%, SP500 +0.00%, Nasdaq +0.33%, New York Composite -0.02%, Russell2000 +0.2%.
Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 10.23.41 AM

The intra-day buying shows up in the long lower tail on the current candle for the DJI.  That’s usually a positive sign but strong buying tomorrow is needed to prove the case.  If we get a down day tomorrow, then we’ve just had a short term counter trend rally.

The NYSE Bullish Percent (a measure of breadth) still languishes at its lows, and shows a steep negative divergence from the main indices.  It has had two positive days, but they are not strong.  This looks like consolidation at the lows which leads to more downside.
Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 10.27.09 AM
US$ and Hard Commodities:
Screen Shot 2015-07-31 at 10.29.30 AM
Under the influence of a strong US$, all the other charts above were down.  Base Metals (DBB) did poorly -1.08%.  Iron Ore was also down -1.3%.  Gold continues to struggle at its lows -0.89%
Our Miners will struggle today, but the rest of the market might be OK.
Our market will finish the month with a healthy upside result.  That’s in keeping with the recent good figures for July.  August in the past 10 years has also been generally positive.  Let’s hope the record keeps on the plus side in the next month.

RB

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Head/n/Shoulders Anybody? Thursday Evening Liqueurs. 30 July, 2015

July 30, 2015 1 comment

XJO up again today +0.81%.  Very nice.

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 8.49.40 PM

The Index is again back at a very strong resistance level.  If it can overcome that – ahead is the 100-Day MA.

Indicators are positive but not overbought.

If both those levels can be overcome, then we’ll have a clear H/n/S formation completed.

At this stage, I can’t see any reason why the formation shouldn’t be completed.  (Famous last words?)

For that to happen – we need to see the Miners starting a bull run.  That means a fall in the mighty U.S.$ so that commodity prices can rise.  hmmm?  Let’s wait and see how the chart plays out.

RB

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Fed. Day. Thursday Morning Joe. 30 July, 2015.

July 30, 2015 Leave a comment

Major Indices, Europe and America

eu

DAX +0.34%, UK +1.16%, France +0.81%, Italy -0.34%.  The three big Euro Zone markets (Germany, France, Italy) still haven’t recouped all of the big falls made on Monday.  I wanted to see a better performance than that in this session.

am

 The Fed. Minutes were released at 2.00 p.m. (NY).  At that time, the indices were all solidly positive.  The release of the Minutes produced the usual scenario:  Up, Down, then back up.  The indices continued climbing into the 3.00 p.m. time slot, then drifted sideways into the finish. DJ30 +0.69%, SP500 +0.73%, Nasdaq +0.44%, New York Composite 0.87%, Russell2000 +0.41%.
The American indices are looking better than the Europeans, but still not all that convincing when looking at the internals.  The NY NewHighs/NewLows ratio at 44.5% is still not above its mid-line after two strong up days.  The Nasdaq is showing a similar position with NH/NL Ratio at 39.4%.  I’d like to see both of those above their mid-lines before feeling confident.  Maybe, if we get another solid day tomorrow, my concerns will be alleviated.  But the chart of the DJ30 is still not all that convincing:
dji
Charts don’t lie.  Interpretation, however, lies in the mind of the observer.  Maybe I got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning, but the way this chart looks to me – it still has problems.  Consider:
  1. There’s a down sloping trend channel,
  2. The MAs are stacked from low to high 20/50/100 – that remains a bearish profile,
  3. The Super Trend Line and the 20-Day MA could both offer stern resistance even if we see an up day in the next session,
  4. MACD Histogram is below zero and RSI hasn’t risen above its mid-line.
Two days up in a short-term counter-trend rally is about all we can expect.  Tomorrow seems to me to be crucial.
The NYSE Bullish Percent (another measure of breadth) still languishes at its lows, and shows a steep negative divergence from the main indices:
bp
US$ and Hard Commodities:
Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 9.51.33 AM
Under the influence of a strong US$, Industrial Metals fell -0.43%.  Gold continues to stabilise around its lows.  Energy had a strong day, +1.28%, but still has a lot of work to do to break the big down trend.  Iron Ore had a cracker, +5.6%.
With positive overnight markets and a very good result in Iron Ore, we should have another positive day today.
RB
RB.
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Strong Day in Australia. Wednesday Evening Joe. 29 July, 2015.

July 29, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO up today +0.71% on above average volume.

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 8.57.43 PM

The XJO has bounced off a several important support levels.  (I’ve mentioned these before in previous posts – so pardon me if it don’t elaborate – just look at the chart.)  That succesful test suggests we’ll see much more upside.

We must keep in mind that we have a long term down trend.  Until the Index can successfully negotiate above the 100-Day MA, overhead resistance, and the resistance of the Standard Error Channel, this market remains with a question mark over it.

Some selling did occur in the afternoon session.  So some institutions must be nervous about the current situation.  The selling wasn’t serious.  So it might just indicate a view amongst some institutions that the American market will undergo some selling tonight after a very strong session on Tuesday.

I can’t see much to be worried about in the short term.  I’d like to see some more positive action to be settled about the medium term.   But breadth studies that I’ve mentioned in the past suggest the medium term will also be positive.

RB

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Strong night in U.S. & Europe. Wednesday Morning Joe. 29 July, 2015

July 29, 2015 Leave a comment

Major Indices, Europe and America

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.18.33 AM

DAX +1.06%%, UK +0.77%, France +1.01%, Italy +2.27%.  The four big Europeans were all up strongly but not nearly enough to recoup the previous day’s losses.  Each shows an “inside day”, which suggests indecision.   We need to see strong upward momentum tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.22.09 AM

The situation in America looks much more positive with very strong bullish candles on all indices.  This looks like a short covering rally – so more upside seems likely.

Here’s the NYMO:
Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.24.22 AM
NYMO is repeating the action seen in all previous pull-backs this year.  Down to around -60 and then a strong rebound back above 50, so this pull-back seems to be over
Here’s the detailed chart for the DJ30:
 Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.28.01 AM
DJI has moved back above the lows of early July.  The indicators, after being oversold, have moved to the upside, so it looks like we’re going back to the top of the recent range.  If yesterday’s low is broken then the market is in serious trouble.
US$ and Hard Commodities:
Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.30.54 AM
Industrial Metals Index had a strong move to the upside, as did Iron Ore +1.5%.  Gold is still trying to form a base.
RB.
RB.
Categories: Uncategorized

Bullish Reversals Two Days in a Row. Tuesday Evening Liqueurs. 28 July, 2015.

July 28, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO had another bullish reversal day. Although the final result was negative -0.09%, it was well down at 11.30 a.m. That low was the low of an inverse Head/n/Shoulders pattern which led to a very strong rally into 1.00 p.m. At that stage the market was in positive territory. It gave up a bit in afternoon trade to finish just a little on the negative side.

Volume was well above the recent average. That’s what we need to see on a reversal day. The range was also quite wide – much wider than the range on Monday which was also a bullish reversal.

As this has happened two days in a row and support is holding, I think we’ll see a strong rally in days to come.

Here’s the chart:

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 11.45.45 PM

The 20-Day MA has moved above the 50-Day MA.  If we now get a bounce here in the next day or so off that x-over, that will be a very positive sign.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized
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