Friday Morning Joe. 23 September, 2016.

September 23, 2016 Comments off

In America:

Screen Shot 2016-09-23 at 9.30.52 AM.png

Momentum from yesterday continued through to today with most indices showing a gap up opening.  Four out of five indices have burst up through the 20 & 50 Day MAs.  Dow Jones is the only laggard.  Dow Jones +0.54%, SP500 +0.65%, Nasdaq +0.84%, New York Composite +0.8%, Russell 2000 +1.48%.  Bulls are back in control.

NYSE NewHigh/NewLow Ratio is bullish at 98.7%.  New Lows dropped to an exceptionally low figure of two.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2016-09-23 at 9.38.43 AM.png

The Index gapped up and then remained in a narrow range to finish +0.65%.  The short term Stochastic (14.3.5) has risen above that long term Stochastic (50.10.10) that’s a bullish event.  MFI, RSI and are above their mid-lines and CCI is above its zero line into positive territory.  Further upside seems assured.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2016-09-23 at 9.42.39 AM.png

 

DBC, the Commodities Index tracking ETF, up +0.55%.  It has broken above the symmetrical triangle, although not convincingly.  Intra-day selling is showing up, and the next level of horizontal resistance needs to be broken for the bulls to be confident.   Energy  +0.93%.  Industrial Metals +1.19%. Gold 0.24%.  Iron Ore up +1.6%

We’ll be stronger today.  We should hit horizontal resistance today at 5405 and perhaps go over it.  If we see afternoon selling pull the XJO back below that level, this run-up could be over.

 

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Thursday Evening Liqueurs. 22 September, 2016.

September 22, 2016 Comments off

The Fed induced rally in America rolled around to Australia today.  XJO up +0.65%.  Volume was above average.  So a little profit taking was probable.  That’s evident in the small drop off in the XJO in the last hour or trading – but nothing to indicate that a bearish mood was developing.

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The Index got close to horizontal resistance 5406, but not close enough to induce any sort of reaction to the downside.  Today closed at 5374.5.

So we will probably see a strike upwards tomorrow at that resistance level which is about 30 points above the closing level today.  That’s about 0.65% above today’s closing level.  Look for a pullback around that level.

RB

Categories: Uncategorized

Thursday Morning Joe. 22 September, 2016.

September 22, 2016 Comments off

In America:

Screen Shot 2016-09-22 at 9.46.20 AM.png

The Fed’s decision to hold rates at current levels was the catalyst for a strong afternoon move in American Indices.  Dow Jones +0.9%, SP500 +1.09%, Nasdaq +1.03%, New York Composite +1.4%, Russell 2000 1.36%.

NYSE NewHigh/NewLow Ratio is bullish at 79.8%.  New Lows dropped to 18.  That’s not threatening.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2016-09-22 at 9.58.29 AM.png

The Index has risen to the 20-Day MA.  More upside seems likely, but the 50-Day MA could cap further upside movements.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2016-09-22 at 10.00.59 AM.png

DBC, the Commodities Index tracking ETF, up strongly +1.24%. Energy was a big mover +1.98%.  Industrial Metals flat +0.00%. Gold benefitted from the Fed decision +1.46%.  Iron Ore up 10 cents 55.40.

DBC is in a small symmetrical triangle.  A break out either way should tell us more about future direction.

 

We’ll be stronger today.  We could hit horizontal resistance today at 5405.  If we see afternoon selling pull the XJO back below that level, this run-up could be over.

 

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Wednesday Night Liqueurs. 21 September, 2016.

September 21, 2016 Comments off

XJO up strongly today +0.68%.  It’s been up five of the last six days.  The only down day was the glitch-ridden ASX when the XJO fell just -0.04%.  Ignoring that, the XJO has been up five of five.

Screen Shot 2016-09-21 at 6.12.21 PM.png

XJO is now heading towards its “moment of truth”, the 20-Day MA and the resistance of the Super Trend Line.  If this is just a counter-trend bounce, then we’re likely to see a negative reaction in the next day or so.

FOMC decision tonight.  That will probably act as a catalyst for decisive movement.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Wednesday Morning Joe. 21 September, 2016.

September 21, 2016 Comments off

In America:

Screen Shot 2016-09-21 at 9.23.41 AM.png

Dow Jones +0.05%, SP500 +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.12%, New York Composite -0.04%, Russell 2000 -0.34%.  Generally flat finishes.   NYA, Dow Jones and SPX all show significant negative cross-0vers on the 20/50 Day MAs.  The indices were up early in the day but significant intra-day selling occurred.  DJ and SPX are consolidating at the lows but may be forming positive small ascending triangle patterns.  Which way they break will be important.

NYSE NewHigh/NewLow Ratio is above its mid-line, 55.9%.  New Lows rose to 26.  That’s still not especially threatening but New Highs are dropping sharply to 33.  It wouldn’t take much to knock this into a bearish profile.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2016-09-21 at 9.31.14 AM.png

Same old story.  The Index hasn’t broken below horizontal support.  A short term upside movement remains probable.  The big problem for SPX is the negative cross-over of the 20/50 DMAs.  That level is coincident with a horizontal resistance level.  Powerful negative stuff.  The likely scenario is that the SPX will rise up to the 20-Day MA and then fall.  If, the less likely scenario, the SPX can push back above the 20/50Day MAs and that horizontal resistance level, the bulls will be back in the game.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2016-09-21 at 9.32.58 AM.png

DBC, the Commodities Index tracking ETF, up modestly +0.35%. Energy +0.34%.  Industrial Metals were better +0.67%. Gold +0.1%.  Iron Ore remains flat at 55.30.

DBC is in a small symmetrical triangle.  A break out either way should tell us more about future direction.

There’s not much to go on from the American market last night.  It is in wait-and-see mode ahead of the results of the FOMC meeting which will be out tonight.

We’ll probably have another quiet narrow range day.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Tuesday Evening Liqueurs, 20 September, 2016.

September 20, 2016 Comments off

XJO up marginally +0.17%.  Afternoon buying took the index into positive territory.  That’s a positive sign.

Screen Shot 2016-09-20 at 8.50.21 PM.png

The short term Stochastic (14.3.5) has broken above the long term Stochastic (50.10.10).   That’s a bullish development.  Other indicators are moving to the upside.

The American FOMC (the Federal Reserve) meets tonight and tomorrow night (Oz time).

I don’t expect to see much movement in markets until American interest rate decisions are announced on Wednesday (NY time).  We could continue to move to the upside in small increments, but the 20-Day MA is likely to halt any upside movement.

RB.

Tuesday Morning Joe. 20 September, 2016.

September 20, 2016 Comments off

In America:

Screen Shot 2016-09-20 at 9.46.56 AM.png

Dow Jones -0.02%, SP500 -0.00%, Nasdaq -0.18%, New York Composite +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.3%.  This is looking increasingly bearish.  NYA, Dow Jones and SPX all show significant negative cross-0vers on the 20/50 Day MAs.  The indices were up early in the day but significant intra-day selling occurred.  The one bright spot was the good breadth showing up on NYA and R2K.  I mentioned in the Weekend Report that the strong action in Apple was, in fact, bearish (3-Gap Up Pattern).  Apple was down -1.17% and had an obvious impact on Nasdaq.

NYSE NewHigh/NewLow Ratio remains bullish, 81.7%.  New Lows are at 15.  That’s a benign number.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2016-09-20 at 9.56.07 AM.png

The Index hasn’t broken below horizontal support.  A short term upside movement remains probable.  The big problem for SPX is the negative cross-over of the 20/50 DMAs.  That level is coincident with a horizontal resistance level.  Powerful negative stuff.  The likely scenario is that the SPX will rise up to the 20-Day MA and then fall.  If, the less likely scenario, the SPX can push back above the 20/50Day MAs and that horizontal resistance level, the bulls will be back in the game.  There’s no sign yet that the less likely scenario is coming into play.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2016-09-20 at 9.57.40 AM.png

DBC, the Commodities Index tracking ETF, more or less flat -0.07%. Energy -0.26%.  Industrial Metals +0.68%. Gold +0.21%.

DBC is in a small symmetrical triangle.  A break out either way should tell us more about future direction.

 

There’s not much to go on from the American market last night.  It is in wait-and-see mode ahead of the next FOMC meeting.  We’ll also probably have a quiet narrow range day.  It will be interesting to see if volume picks up today after the glitches of yesterday restricted trading on the ASX.

RB.