May 29, 2015 Leave a comment

American Major Indices

The American Indices were well down at the opening.  After about the first hour, the market then chopped its way higher to regain a lot of the lost ground at the final bell.  This intra-day buying can be seen in the long lower tail on all of this session’s candles.  This is positive.  But all candles are “inside” candles – so they count for little unless we get a break higher in the next session.  A break lower would be bearish.

Screen Shot 2015-05-29 at 11.00.21 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for Dow Jones Industrial:

Screen Shot 2015-05-29 at 11.13.11 AM

DJ30 down a little  -0.2%.  We now have two “inside” candles in a row.  A decisive break one way or another should determine the trend in the short term.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-05-29 at 11.17.51 AM

US$ down modestly, -0.27%.   The usual inverse effect in the commodities didn’t apply in this session.  Base Metals up very strongly +1.57%, Energy +0.24%, Precious Metals +0.03%.  GLD +0.11%.  Iron Ore is often a wild card, down 0.5% and sitting at 62.3.

Here’s a detailed chart for the Base Metals:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.29.42 AM

I mentioned yesterday that conditions were ripe for the Base Metals to produce a turn-around.  We’ve got that now.  We should see some more upside, at least in the short term, which would be good news for our Miners.

Oz Stocks in NY:

Screen Shot 2015-05-29 at 11.25.13 AM

BHP -1.39%.  Rio -0.65%.   Westpac -1.01% and ANZ -0.93%. RMD +0.95%.  Woodside -1.5%.  EWA -1.36%.  AUD/USD -0.96%.

Today, the Australian market has started higher and gone on with the job.  After a two day pull-back, the short term trend has returned strongly to the upside.  There should be more in this run-up.

RB

Categories: Uncategorized

Oz down modestly. Thursday Evening Liqueurs. 28 May, 2015

May 28, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO down modestly -0.21%.  Today’s candle was a “spinner” denoting indecision.  Volume below the 20-Day Average – which is suggestive of indecision.

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 7.18.40 PM

America was up overnight – and that gave an early boost to our market, but it was short lived and we fell heavily.  It then recovered to be about par around the end of the lunch session.  At that stage it looked possible that we would finish on the positive side – but the market then gave back a bit to finish down modestly.

Here’s the Daily Sector Performance Chart:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 6.05.44 PM

No real surprises here.  Gold Miners down sharply after a big overnight fall in POG.  (Keep watching the POG over the next few weeks – as it is entering a seasonally favourable period.  No sign of that today.)

The three positive sectors are Utilities, Health and Consumer Staples.  They are all Defensives.  Our market was down modestly, so it should not surprise that some Defensives did well.  Telecoms, the fourth defensive sector, was weak.

Here’s the chart for Telstra, the biggest component by far in the Telecom Sector:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 7.31.10 PM

Telstra is back to horizontal support.  The bias is down.  We need to see a quick recovery here.

RB

Categories: Uncategorized

Oh No, We Got It Wrong. Thursday Morning Joe. 28 May, 2015.

May 28, 2015 Leave a comment

American Major Indices

Yesterday, the American market was down big time.  Today, it said, “Oh No, We got it wrong yesterday.”  Nasdaq +1.47%. NY Composite +0.71%. Russell2000 +1.26%.  DJ30 +0.67%.  SP500 +0.92%.  Of course, yesterday was due to Greece (bad), today it is due to Greece (good).

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 8.52.48 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for Dow Jones Industrial:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.13.05 AM

DJ30 up  +0.67%.  This session resulted in an “inside” candle, but Nasdaq and R2K were much more definite.  DJ30 has bounced nicely off horizontal support.  It is now up against the resistance level which held the market down for nearly two months March-May.  It remains in consolidation.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.25.16 AM

US$ flat, +0.04%.   Base Metals -0.2%, Energy -1.85%, Precious Metals -0.15%.  GLD -0.02%.  Iron Ore is often a wild card, up 0.8% and sitting at 62.6.

Here’s a detailed chart for the Base Metals:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.29.42 AM

Base Metals Group has fallen strongly since early May.  It is now oversold and sitting on an old oblique support level.  Today’s candle is a tombstone doji, so, if we get a big up day in the next session, this pull-back could be over.  And that would be good news for our Miners.  The U.S.$ will be the determining factor. It’s had a good recent run, putting the dampeners on commodity prices.  In last night’s session, the U.S.$ finished flat but suffered intra-day selling after it hit a major oblique resistance level.  (The inverse of DBB). So this situation is currently at an inflection point.

Iron Ore has been doing better than the Base Metals, and that’s had a softening effect on the DBB fall where our big miners are concerned.

Oz Stocks in NY:

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.35.17 AM

BHP +0.04%.  Rio +0.29%.   Westpac +0.08% and ANZ +0.4%. RMD +1.18%.  Woodside +0.78%.  EWA +0.04%.  AUD/USD -0.04%.

Today, I wouldn’t expect Australia to follow the strong lead from America.  But you never know.  Some of the Miners and Energy companies might be down, but the IO miners could get a boost.  So, once again, it will probably be up to our Banks.

RB

Categories: Uncategorized

Maroons – by the skin of their teeth. Wednesday Evening Liqueurs. 27 May, 2015

May 27, 2015 Leave a comment

Maroons 11.  Blues 10.  All’s right with the world.  Now – back to business.

XJO down heavily (-0.83%) after a couple of big up days.  Volume was light during those up days, but returned to more normal levels today.  The drop off in volume was largely due to the series of holidays in America and Europe which took their traders out of the equation.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 10.54.04 PM

We’ve had four days up in a row (about par for the course) and then today we have a bearish looking candle at the confluence of several resistance levels.  The big down session in America on Tuesday didn’t do our market any favours either.

Almost all sectors were down today.  The only sector on the up was Information Technology – and it often plays a lone wolf role.  Up today +0.6%.  Consumer Staples was the worst, -1.8%.  The other defensive sectors didn’t perform well.  Telecoms -1.2%, Health -1%, Utilities -1%.  All did worse than the market benchmark, so that might be some sign of bullishness – but not much. Amongst the Consumer Staples stocks, Woolworths had a particularly nasty fall -2.07% and further falls seem likely.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 11.11.41 PM

Despite a big fall in the POG overnight (-1.46%), the Gold Miners didn’t do too badly. -0.1%.  The Gold Miners have been doing much better than the POG in recent times – that suggests some good times ahead for Gold and the Miners.

Here’s the XGD Chart:

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 11.22.30 PM

XGD has been in a solid up trend since mid-March.

POG often has a tradable rally starting some time in June.  So we’re coming into a seasonally good time for Gold.  Given the bullish stance in the Gold Miners, we could see some dramatic action in that sector in coming weeks.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Post Holiday Blues. Wednesday Morning Joe. 27 May, 2015.

May 27, 2015 Leave a comment

American Major Indices

The long weekend did no favours for the American market.  All Indices down sharply.  Often after a long weekend, volume is low.  Not this time.  Traders weren’t dragging their feet to get away from the Hamptons.  The market was down from the Get Go and continued down until the last hour when it regained a little ground, but not much.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 8.52.48 AM

Here’s the detailed chart for Dow Jones Industrial:

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 8.59.05 AM

DJ30 down  -1.04%. I mentioned recently that action in the major American markets looked like distribution from strong hands to weak hands.  From Smart Money to Dumb Money.  Smart Money sells out before the market falls, leaving DM holding the parcel.  We now have to watch to see when SM starts buying again.  At this stage, the market remains in its sideways consolidation, so we’ll have to see what happens when it gets to the lows of the recent range.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 9.03.44 AM

US$ had a big up, +1.11%.   Predictably, Commodities of interest to Australia were down.  Base Metals -0.58%, Energy -2.78%, Precious Metals -1.51%.  GLD -1.46%.  Iron Ore is often a wild card, up 1.6% and sitting at 62.1.

Oz Stocks in NY:

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 9.09.15 AM

BHP -1.5%.  Rio -1.29%.   Westpac +0.94% and ANZ +0.00%.  (Both banks suffered intra-day selling.) RMD +0.6%.  Woodside +0.65%.  EWA +0.13%.  AUD/USD -1.26%.

Prices in Oz Stocks overnight in NY were knocked by the lower Oz$

RB

Categories: Uncategorized

Another big day up. Tuesday evening liqueurs. 26 May, 2015

May 26, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO up strongly again on low volume +0.91%.  The low volume can probably be attributed to the holidays in Europe and America and not something to be considered a negative.

XJO

When the American market goes on holidays, we often find two days where one is a surprise, and the other is flat.  This time, with America, and most of the Europeans on holidays, we got the “surprise” on Monday – and another “surprise” on Tuesday.  That’s bullish.

The chart is short term positive.  It is now coming up to the resistance of the recent sideways consolidation.   It is likely to move up into that zone.  Once overbought – we’ll have to re-asses.

Market commentators are a privileged breed.  They have the mass media at their finger-tips and what they say is the focus of attention.  So today we had lots of attention on Fortescue Metals, up +10.6%   That’s impressive.

What was the best performing sector on the Oz Market today?  XMM?  Nope.  Boring old Utilities.  Here’s the daily Sector performance:

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 8.40.42 PM

Utilities got the rocket today.  XUJ is basically a one-stock sector.  Not really.  But AGL dominates so much, that any big movement in that, one way or the other, moves the sector chart.  So, AGL must have been a big mover today.  And it was, +6.4%.  That’s not quite as impressive as FMG’s >10%, but not to be sneezed at.  Here’s the chart.

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 8.43.55 PM

I’ve been suggesting AGL (quietly) for a while.  It’s been a great performer.  In a sideways consolidation for some time now, but today’s action (off the basis of an investor presentation) shot the stock up well above the recent consoldation zone.  That’s what we want to see from a break out.

Here, by comparison is FMG:

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 8.47.28 PM

A big gap up on news.  Today’s candle shows intra-day selling – see the long upper shadow on today’s candle.  No channel breakout.

Quite a different basket of fish.

Now – FMG could easily go on with the job.  But, for my money, AGL looks a safer bet.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Surprise! Monday Evening Liqueurs. 25 May, 2015

May 25, 2015 Leave a comment

XJO had a strong day today +1%.  Volume was extremely low.  This looks like opportunists taking advantage of the hiatus in trading in NY tonight – and pushing up our market today.  They did well.

Screen Shot 2015-05-25 at 9.23.49 PM

The HOD was just before 2.00 p.m.  The market then headed south and looked in a bit of danger but recovered in the last half hour to record a big up day.

That hasn’t changed the technical picture.  The chart is currently in a sideways consolidation.  It has formidable overhead resistance.  There is probably a pit more in this.  Bulls will be optimistic about their chances.  Bears will wait.  At the moment the medium term bias remains down.  The market is in a short term up trend.  It has to do much more than this to return to a bullish profile.

The Financial Sector, particularly the big banks, are the controlling factor in our market.  CBA is the biggest bank, and the largest stock in our market. Here is its chart:

CBA

Screen Shot 2015-05-25 at 9.40.17 PM

CBA bottomed on 7 May, and has made little headway since then.  It had a good day today, +1.07%, but it remains in a sideways consolidation.  As the longer term trend is down, the most likely resolution of this consolidation is to the downside.

The second biggest sector in our market is the Materials Sector.  The largest stock in that Sector is BHP and the third largest stock in our market.  Its chart is currently skewed by the spin-off of South32.  So I’ll look at Rio instead, which is our second largest miner.

RIO

Screen Shot 2015-05-25 at 9.47.18 PM

Rio has been in a sideways consolidation since early March.  Today it had a good rise of +1.55%.  That’s not particularly large for Rio which tends to be volatile.  The Iron Ore Price had a good rise on Friday night, up +3.8%.  Rio’s price rise today hasn’t reflected that big price increase in IO.  So its performance today is not all that spectacular.    Again – we need to see more work done to be convinced that our market is about to shrug off the bearish sentiment it’s been under in recent times.

RB

Categories: Uncategorized
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