Saturday Morning Joe. 25 February, 2017.

February 25, 2017 Comments off
  In America:

DJ +0.05%, SP500 +0.15%, NYA +0.13%, Nasdaq +0.17%, Russell2000 -0.01%.

Screen Shot 2017-02-25 at 10.14.47 AM.png

Now, only three out of five indices are overbought.  The two broadest indices continue to weaken.

 

SP500:Screen Shot 2017-02-25 at 11.05.43 AM.png

SP500 opened gap down, then went sideways for most of the session.  Buying in the last hour brought the index up to finish flat – and decimate bears.

ST Stochastic (14.3.5) continues to hold below the LT Stochastic (50.10.10) which suggests an imminent trend change.

ow the Long Term Stochastic, but only marginally.  It is suggesting however that momentum has slowed and the next move is possibly to the downside.

VIX

Screen Shot 2017-02-25 at 11.09.40 AM.png

VIX closed at 11.47.  That kept the close below the 50-Day MA.  A definite close above that marker should indicate a bout of selling in the major indices.

Bears need get a clear signal on the VIX above the 50-DMA confirmed by a negative x-over of the Short Term Stochastic below the Long Term Stochastic.

 Commodities:

DBC -0.19%.  Industrial Metals +1.61%.  Energy -0.23%.  Gold +0.64%.

 

Those metals prices will help our miners on Monday.

XJO Friday Close Chart

Screen Shot 2017-02-25 at 11.14.24 AM.png

A poor result on Friday with the XJO down -0.79%.

Miners were hit hard again:

Screen Shot 2017-02-25 at 11.17.06 AM.png

That gives the Miners a confirmed double top.  On the other hand it is sitting on support of the 65-Day MA and horizontal support.  So a bounce here is likely.  A clear break below the 65-Day MA will bring the 144-Day MA into play.  At this stage that doesn’t seem likely.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Friday Morning Joe. 24 February, 2017.

February 24, 2017 Comments off
  In America:

DJ +0.17%, SP500 +0.04%, NYA +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.43%, Russell2000 -0.66%.

Screen Shot 2017-02-24 at 8.15.01 AM.png

All indices except $RUT remain overbought with the Dow Jones extremely overbought.

Indices are becoming a little lopsided with Nasdaq down moderately.  Lopsided markets tend to be dangerous.

Dow Transports (not shown) is sometimes taken as a proxy for the economy.  It was down -1.19%.  The chart is still not into a bearish down trend, but today’s loss is the biggest fall in many days.  It could be the canary in the coal mine.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-02-24 at 8.22.51 AM.png

SP500 finished below its opening but intra-day buying kept the index with a flat finish.  Short Term Stochastic fell below the Long Term Stochastic, but only marginally.  It is suggesting however that momentum has slowed and the next move is possibly to the downside.

VIX

Screen Shot 2017-02-24 at 8.26.06 AM.png

VIX closed at 11.71.  That kept the close below the 50-Day MA.  A definite close above that marker should indicate a bout of selling in the major indices.

Bears need get a clear signal on the VIX above the 50-DMA confirmed by a negative x-over of the Short Term Stochastic below the Long Term Stochastic.

 Commodities:

DBC +0.32%.  Industrial Metals -2.63%.  Energy +0.93%.  Gold +0.87%.  Iron Ore -4.3%.  (Ouch).

 

Those metals prices should put another dint in the big miners today.

The Dow Transport Index is a concern and negative sentiment from that could flow into our market today.

We saw some range expansion yesterday.  If that increases again today, it will probably be to the downside.  It’s difficult to see a catalyst for an upside move.  But, you never know.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Thursday Evening Thoughts. 23 February, 2017.

February 23, 2017 Comments off

XJO down -0.35%.

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 8.07.00 PM.png

XJO still doesn’t know whether it is Arthur or Martha.  Bullish or Bearish.  It continues to battle out below overhead resistance.

Today, range increased over previous days, but still a narrow range day in the wider scheme.

It finished almost bang in the middle of today’s range.  That doesn’t provide us with much information.

The XJO is currently between a Rock and a Hard Place, i.e., overhead resistance, and the 13-Day MA.

Advance/Decline and UpVol/DownVol is a bit more forthcoming.

Here’s an Oscillator based on the Trin ((A/D)/(UpVol/DownVol)), but tweaked a bit to make it more reliable:

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 8.22.54 PM.png

The Tweaked Trin Oscillator has reached up to 20.  High is bearish.  That’s the worst performance we’ve seen since 3 February.  That suggests we’ll see more downside.

RB

 

 

 

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Thursday Morning Joe, 23 February, 2017.

February 23, 2017 Comments off
  In America:

DJ +0.16%, SP500 -0.11%, NYA -0.24%, Nasdaq -0.09%, Russell2000 -0.46%.

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 10.17.31 AM.png

Dow Jones,  RSI 80.83.  SP500, RSI 78.39.  Nasdaq, RSI 81.1. NYA, RSI  70.58.  R2k, RSI 661.22.  R2k is the only index not overbought – which is a negative as it means that the Small Caps are lagging.  Usually the Small Caps lead robust bull markets.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 10.28.05 AM.png

Short Term Stochastic remains above the Long Term Stochastic, so we still don’t have a signal for a pull-back.

VIX

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 10.30.19 AM.png

VIX closed at 1.74.  It remained just below the 50-Day MA.  A definite close above that marker should indicate a bout of selling in the major indices.

 Commodities:

DBC -0.51%.  Industrial Metals +0.03%.  Energy -0.54%.  Gold +0.14%.  Iron Ore -1%

 

After nearly two hours of trading today, the XJO is down -0.4%.  That’s largely due to falls in the big miners, BHP -2.6% and Rio -4.9%.

In my Weekly Report, I’ve been warning about rotation out of the Materials sector.  That looks to be now gathering steam.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Wednesday Evening Thoughts. 22 February, 2017.

February 22, 2017 Comments off

XJO up modestly today +0.24%.

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 8.39.45 PM.pngThe past five days have been narrow range days – sitting around horizontal resistance.

These are days of indecision – battles between bulls and bears.  Equilibrium between supply and demand.

Indicators have now tilted expectations to the downside.  Short Term Stochastic (14.3.5) has dropped below Long Term Stochastic (50.10.10).  That usually indicates further downside.

I think we’re headed for a short term pull-back.

Overnight markets might suggest otherwise.

Materials Sector (XMJ) has been the most important driver of upside momentum in our market for many months.

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 9.01.32 PM.png

We have plenty of pointers to its waning influence.  It remains, however, in a strong up trend.

Since late January, XMJ has been under performing the XJO.  The two MAs in the lower panel (Comparative Performance with the XJO) are now both sliding sideways.  Which suggests that XMJ is now aligned with XJO.

MACD is showing a negative divergence from the stock chart.  That’s bearish.

Short Term Stochastic (14.3.5) has broken below Long Term Stochastic (50.10.10) – that suggests we’ll see a pull-back.

Watch carefully for a break in the up trend of XMJ.  If that happens, our market could be in line for a serious pull-back.

RB.

 

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Wednesday Morning Joe. 22 February, 2017.

February 22, 2017 Comments off
  In America:

DJ +0.58%, SP500 +0.6%, NYA +0.59%, Nasdaq +0.47%, Russell2000 +0.75%.

After the President’s Day Holiday, the American indices resumed their climb upwards.

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 10.46.13 AM.png

Dow Jones,  RSI 80.16.  SP500, RSI 80.41.  Nasdaq, RSI 82.62.  Those three indices are now extremely overbought.  NYA, RSI  74.42 (overbought).  R2k, RSI 64.82.  R2k is the only index not overbought – which is a negative as it means that the Small Caps are lagging.  Usually the Small Caps lead robust bull markets.

SP500:

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 10.53.33 AM.png

We can add to the overbought status of the RSI (above), Short Term Stochastic at 97.9 and Money Flow Index which is above 8.

When the STS falls below the LTS we should see a pull-back.

VIX

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 10.56.45 AM.png

 

Perversely, VIX rose in this session while major indices also rose.  The usually act inversely.  It remained just below the 50-Day MA.  A definite close above that marker should indicate a bout of selling in the major indices.

 Commodities:

DBC -0.13%.  Industrial Metals +0.98%.  Energy -0.54%.  Gold +0.06%.  Iron Ore +1.9%

 

After two hours of trading today, the XJO is flat.  That’s largely due to a fall in CBA going ex-dividend today.  Materials Sector is also flat, a little surprising given the good overnight metals prices in America (but UK metals prices are down).

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized

Tuesday Evening Thoughts. 21 February, 2017.

February 21, 2017 Comments off

XJO down -0.07%.  Last night, the American market was closed for President’s Day.  Our market for the past two days has been in pause mode.

Here’s the XJO Chart:

Screen Shot 2017-02-21 at 9.00.23 PM.png

The chart is holding just below horizontal resistance.  Not enough to call this a pull-back.  Just a pause in proceedings.

The coloured coded MACD has shown the major changes in trend for our market during the past year.  If only it was that easy all the time.

But – the XJO does trend reasonably well most of the time – in the short term.  So the MACD isn’t a bad guide.

At the moment it is still in a bullish trend phase.  Let’s recognise that as a guide for the time being.  Just be aware that it may not be a good guide in the near future.  The massive negative divergence showing up suggests that we’ll see a substantial down side move in the near future.  But – in the meantime – just wait for a negative x-over of the MACD.

RB.

Categories: Uncategorized