> Postprandials, Thursday, 28 February, 2013
Postprandials, Thursday, 28 February, 2013
In Australia today:
- Twenty Leaders +1.4%
- 50 Leaders +1.4%
- XJO +1.3%
- XAO (All Ords) +1.3%
- Small Ordinaries +0.8%
- Financials (ex Property Trusts) +1.4%
- Materials +1.1%
- Consumer Staples +2%
- Energy +2.8%
- Health +1.6%
- Telecoms -0.4%
- Consumer Discretionary +1.3%
Comment: An extraordinary day on the Australian market today. Today’s advance was led by Energy and Consumer Staples. One Risk Sector, one Defensive Sector.
This looked to me like book-cooking for the end of the month. At about 2.00 p.m. the All Ords was up about +0.7%, it nearly doubled that gain by the end of the day. In the last hour, the intra-day chart was going up exponentially. To add evidence to the book-cooking thesis, XAO volume after 3.00 p.m. added about 1/2 billion shares to the day’s total. (A billion shares is about average for one day.) The last 15-minute volume on many blue chips was way higher than anything seen in recent days. Volume ended at about 1.2 billion shares traded on the XAO – about 118% 20-Day Relative Volume. High, but not extreme. Further, the UpVolume/DownVolume Ratio was a meagre 53.5%. That still favours the Up Volume, but on a day when the XJO was up 1.4%? Nuh. Today we saw money being thrown at market leaders but selling was occurring in plenty of other stocks. Small Ordinaries were again lagging.
I’d ignore today’s action. It finished at a marginal new high. The intra-day high on the XJO was less than 6 points higher than on 20 February. Statistically, that’s meaningless.
Technical Comment on the XJO:
- The XJO finished at 5104.1. Support/resistance: 5098.7. Marginally above support.
- RSI9: 65.9. High – but not dangerous. Negative divergence.
- MACD Histogram. Marginally below zero. Neutral.
- MACD: Below zero. Negative.
- Stochastic: 67.8. Above its signal line. Positive. Negative divergence.
- CCI: -+123.8. Overought.
Today’s action has brought about the test of the recent high that I talked about today. Action today was suspiciously like book-cooking to make institutions look good for the month. The first day of the month is also often positive. We might have to wait until next week to see if this is the real deal.