XJO up +0.2%. Volume today was up on recent days but affected by Options Settlement Day. It’s always elevated on Options Settlement Day.
Bollinger Band %B – a measure of variability from the mean – is the highest since 30 April, 2013 – nearly one year ago. That didn’t mark the Autumn top – the top came about two weeks later. But it was a measure showing how “frothy” the market had become. It is becoming “frothy” once again. We might have to see a bit more upside before we get a serious move to the downside.
That’s all for today. It’s a long Weekend while Australia remembers its War sacrifices.
The regular Weekly Report will be out on Sunday.
SP500 -0.22%, Dow Industrials -0.08%, Nasdaq100 -0.89%, Russell2000 -0.74%, Transports +0.1%
The market was in pause mode last night. Not surprising after SPXwas up for six days. Nasdaq100 was down strongly and breadth (small caps – Russell2000) was weak. After hours, both Apple and Facebook reported and were both up strongly in after hours trading, so a lot of today’s losses in NDX will be recovered.
There were a lot of factors pointing to a pause today. Six days up – that’s one. The chart had also hit dual resistance – horizontal and oblique. That’s always a tough nut to crack. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see more upside. The Indicators still have more room to move. But I’ll change that opinion if today’s pause (narrow range, inside day) is followed by a big down day. Given the after market action in Apple and Facebook – the odds of a big down day in the next session seem low. My best bet would be a test of the recent highs set in early April.
CRB Index was flat at +0.05%. Energy was weak -0.25% but inside the previous day’s range – so this might be consolidating. Industrial Metals down -0.33% and Precious Metals up +0.29%. With the exception of Precious Metals all the commodities have 20-Day MAs above the 50-Day MAs, that’s medium term bullish. The Industrial Metals action might cause a little softening in our Materials today – but really – it’s not a big set back.
BHP on the NYSE down a little -0.18%, Westpac +0.3%, EWA -0.41%, Ozzie Dollar -0.83%. Discounting for the weakness in the Ozzie Dollar, the Australian stocks performed quite well. That looks bullish for our market today.
US$ Gold hasn’t moved significantly off support. But the Gold Miners Index (GDX) has moved up quite strongly +2.02%. Miners usually lead the POG. So this is looking bullish.
XJO up +0.7%. Volume was higher than it’s been for some days. So, in context (although below the 20-Day Average) it looks likely we’re seeing distribution from strong hands to weak hands.
The index is at oblique resstance after five up days. Indicators are suggesting negative divergence but there’s nothing extreme about the indicators. There could be more in this but not much. The following chart suggests to me that we’re seeing a top, at least in the short term.
The above is a chart of Woolworths. It’s been the darling of this short term run-up. Today, WOW hit oblique resitance after being up strongly – and then fell heavily. WOW is showing a hypodermic needle. These are often seen at the end of a trend. If accompanied by high volume – that increases the chance that we’re seeing a top pattern – a blow-off top, with reversal. (Sounds like a 10 score if the judges are bears.)
A single stock reversal may, or may not, be significant. But if tomorrow is a big down day – it just might be the death knell for this short term up trend.
Today the Australian market was carried on the back of the banks. Finncials x-Property up 1%. Here’s the chart for Financials x-PT:
The chart is at oblique resistance. CCI is at 200.6. That’s the highest level in the past six months. A pullback is on the cards.
SP500 +0.41%, Dow Industrials +0.4%, Nasdaq100 +0.81%, Russell2000 +1.16%, Transports +0.63%.
Dow Transports is at an all time high. So far, it hasn’t been confirmed by other major indices. Volume recovered by the very low level of yesterday now that the Europeans are back from holidays. All indices except the Dow Industrials have now been up six days in a row. Seven days up in a row is highly unusual. That doesn’t mean we can’t go up eleven or thirteen days in a row, but this little rally is due for a break. Here are some interesting statistics from Bespoke Investment:
The average gain for the six-day change was +3.3%. The gain for the current six-day change is +3.52%. This one is going, more or less, to schedule.
Here are some more interesting statistics from Bespoke:
Back to the SPX detailed chart:
The chart is back to resistance. Indicators are far from overbought. So there could be more upside, but looking at the Bespoke stats, maybe not tomorrow.
CRB Index was up modestly, +0.21%. Energy had a set-back, -0.89%. Industrial Metals was strong, +0.91%. That’s a positive for the Australian Materials Sector. Precious Metals was down again -0.5%, but it is getting back to support. So we might see some upside from here.
Last night on the NYSE: BHP +0.54%, Westpac +1.13%, EWA +0.98%, Ozzie Dollar +0.42%. That’s all positive for Australia today.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases CPI data today at 11.30 a.m. If the CPI comes in at a high level, that will spark speculation about the future trend in interest rates. Plenty of economists have been predicting that inflation has been picking up – that could put pressure on the RBA to alter its low interest rate policy. That could be a negative for stocks earning most of their revenue in Australia.
I’ve mentioned the (unexplained) strength in Woolworths a couple of times recently. Here’s the chart:
The last time we saw a similar strong rise was in August, 2013. Although RSI is now overbought at 77.2, back in August, 2013, the run up didn’t peter out until RSI hit an extreme level of 86.5. So I’d be loathe to call an end to the current run-up until RSI gets above 80. Unless the CPI is indicating strong inflationary pressures, I’d expect there to be another day or two in this surge by Woollies.
The indications from overnight markets played out today. Our market was up, with miners weak. Volume was very low – obviously holiday affected. We’re now seeing volumes typical of the end-of-year Festive Season. That makes it easy for some of the big players to push the market around – and that happened today in the after-market auction.
XJO up 0.46%. Here’s today’s XJO Chart.
The Index has been up four days in a row. It is now getting into a weak zone of resistance. it wouldn’t take much to bust up through here. Negative divergence could be setting up on indicators. With such low volumes, it will be easy for this to bust up much higher.
Here’s the Sector Chart for today:
This shows clearly how the miners were a drag on our market today. Woolworths continue its inexplicable surge higher making the Consumer Staples the best performer today. That’s highly unusual. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary performed poorly. The big divergence in those two sectors suggests an element of defensiveness coming into the market. (I need to investigate that further, but not right now.)
Gold Miners were particularly weak today. XGD looks determined to get to support. It’s been down seven days in a row. Eight days down would get it there – and it would then be likely to bounce. What happens then will be of interest.
SP500 +0.38, Dow Industrials +0.25%, Nasdaq100 +0.72, Russell 2000 +0.39%, Transports +0.68%.
Here’s the more detailed chart for the SP500:
The Index has now been up five days in a row. Six days up would be unusual. If we get a sixth day, that will bring the index up to around horizontal resistance. The 20-Day and 50-Day MAs are more or less aligned. A break by the index down through that confluence would look negative. Indicators are not especially stretched to the upside, so there could be more in this.
CRB Index down -0.2%. The two most important Commodities from an Australian perspective are Industrial Metals (flat +0.00%) and Precious Metals (down -0.52%). In the Weekly Report on Sunday, I showed how closely aligned our Materials Sector and the Industrial Metals are aligned. So it’s important to keep an eye on the IMs. Here’s the ETF for Industrial Metals:
The chart is at resistance. Money Flow Index was overbought and now turned down. Negative Divergence on the CCI. This looks likely to move to the downside. That’s a negative for our Materials Sector – one of the mainstays of our market.
BHP on the NYSE -0.42%, Westpac +0.03%, EWA -0.04%, Ozzie Dollar +0.01%. There’s not much in that for Australia. But we now are behind trading in America for two days. Both those days in America were positive – although not very strong. SP500 up about half of one percent. So I can’t see a lot happening in Australia. Probably on the positive side today. But anything could happen. If our Materials Index pre-empts a move in America’s Industrial Metals (to the downside), that could pressure our market.
Australian Market. Indices Performance Year to date.
Australian Market. Indices Performance This Week.
Australian Market. XJO – Monthly Chart
Australian Market. XJO – Weekly Chart
Australian Market. XJO – Daily Chart
Australian Market: Seasonal Patterns
Australian Market: Major Factors
International Markets: SP500 Weekly
International Markets: SP500 New Highs
International Markets: Major World Markets, Summary
Commodities: US$ Gold
Summary and Conclusion
SLF – Daily
STW – Daily
INDICES PERFORMANCE – YEAR TO DATE
XAO: up +1.73%. Eight of ten S&P Indices are up. One of the Indices is up only marginally – Consumer Staples. The market has been underpinned by strength in Financials, up +3.56%. The other two best performers (Info.Tech and Utilities) are relatively small contributors to the overall structure of the market. If Financials start to crack – this market might be in for a bearish event. Good performance by Utilities might be a contrarian indicator. Consumer Discretionary has slipped from top of the list in 2013 to sixth YTD2014
S&P Indices Performance – best to worst:
- Utilities: +7.46%
- Info.Tech: 4.73%
- Financials. +3.66%
- Industrials: +2.15%
- Energy: +1.9%
- Consumer Discretionary: +0.6%
- Materials: +0.41%
- Consumer Staples: +0.1%
- Health: -1.51%
- Telecoms: -1.84%
- Property: +5.65%
- Financials (Ex Property): +3.23%
- 50 Leaders: +1.76%
- Small Ordinaries: -1.37%
- Mid-Cap 50: +4.21%
- Metals and Mining: -0.05%
- Gold Miners: +18.82%
The biggest concern for our market is the poor performance of the Small Ordinaries. They’ve been essentially underperforming since early 2011. That’s in part due to the coincident underperformance of the Materials Sector – XSO has a large proportion of miners – but doesn’t completely explain the divergence. On the positive side, three of the four defensives (XSJ, XHJ and STJ) are at the bottom of the rankings. So there is a slight bullish tendency in the market underpinned by strength in local shares – hence the relatively good performance by Financials and Industrials.
The good recent performance of the Gold Miners should be put into perspective. From April, 2011 to December, 2013, Gold Miners were in a secular bear market which stripped nearly 80% off the XGD. The recent rally should be seen as a bear market rally, these can be impressive.
INDICES PERFORMANCE – THIS WEEK
XAO: up modestly +0.39%. Nine of ten S&P Indices are up,
S&P Indices Performance – best to worst:
- Info.Tech.: +1.93%
- Consumer Staples: +1.57%
- Telecoms: +1.41%
- Energy: +1.11%
- Industrials: +0.74%
- Consumer Discretionary: +0.7%
- Utilities: +0.4%
- Financials: +0.37%
- Materials: +0.16%
- Health.: -1.18%
- Property: +0.8%
- Financials (Ex Property): +0.22%
- 50 Leaders: +0.42%
- Small Ordinaries: +0.09%
- Mid-Cap 50: +0.94%
- Metals and Mining: +0.29%
- Gold Miners: -4.5%
The modest rise this week was underpinned by strength in two Defensive Sectors. Telecoms and Consumer Staples. The good performance by Consumer Staples was in part due to an unexplained rise in Woolworths on Thursday, up +2.02%. The two power houses of the Australian market, Financials and Materials, although up, finished near the lower end of the leader board. That does not inspire confidence in this short term rally.
MONTHLY CHART – XJO
The long term (monthly) chart shows no sign of serious deterioration. After nearly three weeks into this month, the XJO is up +1.1%
The Index continues to flirt with Resistance set by the October, 2013 highs – but can’t get past there to any significant degree.
The Index is above the 20-Month Moving Average and above major horizontal support at 4980 (round figures). It is also above the rising support line from June 2012, which is closely aligned with the 20-Month Moving Average.
MACD Histogram, RSI and CCI are all showing divergence from the main chart. This means that momentum has slowedand is sometimes predictive of further downside.
The very long term chart is held in a trading range 4980-5460 (round figures).
The dominant chart pattern is the Rising Wedge. These can break either way, but usually to the downside. The Index could remain in the wedge for another couple of months before breaking one way or the other. But it deserves watching.
WEEKLY CHART – XJO
The XJO finished at 5454.2, up moderately, +0.47%. The Index was down strongly on Monday, but then had three good up days, to finish on the plus side. The weekly candle is still not all that strong – a hang man. That follows a hypodermic needle the previous week. This combination is often seen at or near market tops.
The Index still has plenty of support below. At this stage this doesn’t look the start of a serious correction.
- MACD Histogram. Flat, more or less. Neutral.
- MACD. Negative divergence but still above zero.
- RSI.9 is at 62. Negative divergence.
- CCI.14: +73.8. Possible negative divergence.
Indicators suggest this could go a lot lower. At this stage, however, the Index has plenty of support below it. We could be going back to the pivot formed in early February. This chart doesn’t tell us a lot. A lot of its, buts, possibles. It’s in limbo. If this is about to revert to a bear market profile, RSI is at a high enough level for a reversion to occur. But we need to see a down week to confirm.
Volume has been steadily dropping over the past month – except for the couple of days when the false break occurred. That sometimes occurs during a topping process. Things might become clearer once we get a clear break above resistance – or a break below the pivot of 14 April.
DAILY CHART – XJO
Monday was a big down day – but the market came back relatively strongly in the next three days. We now have a relatively clear set of markers for which way the market will go.
We have a clear resistance level which has defied efforts since late October, 2013.
We also have a good support formed by the pivot of 14 April – Monday of this week.
Volume has been steadily dropping over the past month – except for the couple of days when the false break occurred. That sometimes occurs during a topping process.
At this stage, I’ll be standing aside to see which way this breaks.
(This section remains essentially the same as last week. Nothing material has occurred to change the analysis.)
This graph presents the performance of the Australian ASX500 (All Ordinaries) over the past four years (2010-2013) and 2014 Year-to-Date.
It’s clear from this graph that the Australian market suffers a blue funk each year around April/May. In 2011, it was more than a blue funk – the market didn’t recover all year. It didn’t even have the highly reliable “Santa Rally” in 2011.
In 2010, 2012 and 2013, the market recovered in late June or early July and recorded good gains.
Consistent across all years is a dip in November, sometimes beginning in October.
We’re now into the danger period when we can expect the beginning of a serious pull-back. Of course, it may not happen. The market has a way of disappointing expectations based on previous precedents.
In the past four years, the month of May has been negative in all four years. The other weakest months are June and November. So it looks likely that our market won’t be much good until at least late June or the beginning of July.
I often state that the Australian market is influenced by push/pull factors from overseas. Particularly, China and the U.S. China pulls us down, America pulls us up. End result – middle of the road performance. Not as good as America, better than China.
Here are two charts which graphically illustrate the concept.
The top chart compares the performance of Industrial Metals (DBB) with the Australian Materials Sector (XMJ). The correlation is close. What’s the dominant factor in determining the price of Industrial Metals? Answer – China. (I could also show a comparative chart of China/DBB – it has a similar, but not quite as good, correlation.)
The lower chart compares the performance of the Australian Health Sector (XHJ) with the American Small Caps Index (Russell2000 – RUT). Remember that Health was one of our best performers in 2013.
Again we get a striking correlation. The Australian Health Sector is dominated by companies which operate largely in America. CSL is by far the largest company in the XHJ Index – and its financial reports are now always quoted in American dollars.
Of course, there are many other factors. But these are two striking examples. Another major factor is interest rate policy – which has important direct effects on sectors such as Financials, and Consumer Discretionary, which earn their income largely in Australia. The RBA began dropping interest rates in Australia about two years ago – with direct beneficial results on XFJ and XDJ during 2013. The next movement tipped in interest rates, although probably some time away, is upwards. Inflationary pressures are rising. The RBA doesn’t want to engage in interest rate rises – that would impact the Australian dollar – and the RBA doesn’t want the Ozzie to rise.
(Note. The first interest rate rise often, perversely, results in an increase in the stock market.)
SP500 – WEEKLY
This week saw the SP500 recover from the previous week’s poor performance, up this week +2.71%
I’m not so interested in short term gyrations. Market structure is the dominant focus in analysis. Basically this bull rally began in October, 2011. Since then the Index has had several pull-backs or retracements but no major correction (more than -10%). In the early stages of this rally, there were two major corrections which were halted by the lower Bollinger Bands. (Bollinger Bands are made up of three levels – the middle one is the 20-Day Moving Average, the upper and lower bands are 2 Standard Deviations away from the middle band – the mean.)
Since November 2012, any pull-back has found support, more or less, at the Middle Bollinger Band – the 20-Day Moving Average.
This market is overdue for a correction of greater than -10%. There’s no sign in the chart, as yet, that is about to happen. Look for a piercing of the Lower Bollinger Band by the Index chart – and a break lower of the Lower Bollinger Band.
The Indicators are beginning to look ominous. Clear negative divergences are setting up. These often preced pull-backa.
The biggest correction so far in this rally began in April, 2012. We’re almost exactly two years further down the track.
AMERICAN MARKET – NEW HIGHS
Last week I showed a Sentiment Chart for the American market – the Bull/Bear Ratio. That showed a clear negative divergence setting up on the B/B Ratio – suggesting that “smart money” might be selling out of the market – distribution from strong hands to weak hands.
This week I’m showing a chart of the SPX and New Highs on the Index. Intuitively, if the Index is making new highs, then the number of stocks in the Index should also be making new highs. If they’re not – then the market is being carried up on fewer and fewer stocks making new highs. Obviously, if the number of new highs being made is growing fewer and fewer while the Index is making new highs, this is an unbalanced market which must topple eventually if the number of new highs continues to deteriorte.
From October, 2011 to May 2013, the Index continually made higher higs. And the number of new highs continue to rise. From May, 2013 to the end of 2013, the market was making higher highs, but the number of stocks making new highs stabilised. That is, in fact, a negative divergence. Since the beginning of 2014, the number of stocks making new highs, while the Index has been making new highs, has deteriorated. We now have a strong negative divergence. The supports are slowly being pulled away. This can only continue for so long until the structure topples.
The two previous major corrections have followed this pattern. Yes – a reading higher than 3/1 does indicate the likelihood of a pull-back – but not THE top of the bull rally
This suggests that both Smart Money and Dumb Money record overly positive sentiment before pull backs, but that the Smart Money gets bearish before the Dumb Money as the market goes on to THE top. And SM is then well positioned to buy as the correction reaches it’s lows.
And that’s what we’re seeing now. B/B Ratio reached a post-GFC high in late 2013. Stocks duly corrected in early 2014. The American market (SP500) has since gone on to new all time highs with a lower high on the B/B Ratio. If history repeats, watch out below.
(Note. The above chart is freely available on stockcharts.com.)
MAJOR WORLD MARKETS –
This group of charts shows the International iShares on the American market. These are ETFs for individual country stock markets traded on the NYSE.
A rough guide to medium term bullish/bearish conditions can be gained by looking at the relationship of the 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages. If the 20-Day is above the 50-Day, the Index is bullish. If the 20-Day is below the 50-Day, the Index is bearish.
There are 17 International iShares on the NYSE. Currently 14 out of 17 are bullish. Only three are bearish. Two of the bearish ones are, however, Japan and Germany– two of the power houses of the world economy. They are the third an fourth largest economies in the world. The two largest ones are America and China. Now – China is not represented in this suite of charts. But it is currently bearish (20-Day below the 50-Day.) So, three out of the four major world economies have medium term bearish stock markets. It looks like America is holding up the world. (Prepare the Marching Bands, please Maestro.) “God Bless America.” :)
COMMODITIES – US$ GOLD
If I was ever to write a book on Technical Analysis (unlikely), I think I’d include this as a classic case study. It uses relatively well-known technical analysis tools that have stood the test of time.
- Moving Averages – 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. Guide to Bullish/Bearish condition.
- Moving Averages – 20-Day and 50-Day – Guide to support and Resistance (buy/sell).
- Horizontal Support/Resistance.
- Indicator Divergences – MFI is one of the best leading indicators. CCI is another good one.
- Extreme readings on Indicators. Again – MFI is a great leading indicator. (To get into detail, MFI is basically a Relative Strength Indicator of Price/Volume. It also incorporates aspects of Pivot Point Analysis to determin “Price”.)
To Sum Up: Gold is currently medium term bearish. Most recently it has been rejected at the 20-Day MA, after being rejceted at the 50-Day. MFI is currently headed up, but not confirmed by bullish divergences on other indicators. Expect the current down trend to continue, but monitor carefully in the light of the MFI. Re-assess when (if) the chart reaches horizontal support.
SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
The Australian market had a moderate up week underpinned by a good performance in the Financials – the largest sector in our market.
Looking internationally, most major markets around the world are medium term bullish. The American market is in that category. That’s the biggest market in the world by a long margin. The next three biggest markets (China, Japan, Germany) are showing medium term bearish conditions. So … if America fails – look out everywhere.
Last week I showed that the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio was suggestive of a pull-back or perhaps a correction. This week I’ve introduced the chart of New Highs on the SP500. Again, we’re seeing a weakening of the basic structure of the market. Such bearish weakenings often precede a fall.
I also looked at some major factors influencing the Australian market. We tend to be caught within a push/pull battle between China and America. A good defacto indicator for China is the Industrial Metals Complex. (China is the biggest buyer of Industrilal Metals, and Australia is one of the biggest suppliers.)
In the long term, Industrial Metals has been weak – reflected in the performance of our Materials Sector. That’s the push down. The pull up of America can be clearly seen in the Australian Health Sector. XHJ (Health) is dominated by companies (particularly CSL) which earn their revenue in America. Internally, our market is heavilyinfluenced by RBA Interest Rate Policy. About two years ago, the RBA began to reduce interest rates. That had a marked effect on Sectors acting largely within Australia. The Financials and Consumer Discretionary Sectos have been major beneficiaries of the RBA Interest Rate reductions. Interest Rates have now been steady for seven months. Many pundits are predicting that the next interest rate movements will be up, not down. That seems to be some time away. But the stock market is forward looking, so an expectation of future interest rate increases is likely to have a negative effect on our market. (Although the first interest rate increase often, perversely, is positive for the market.)
Seasonally, we’re coming into one of the worst times of the year. All the skittles seem to be lining up for a pull-back.
At this stage, there is no good reason to be bearish on the market. But it is time to think carefully about defensive plans.
For daily updates – check http://redbackmarketreport.wordpress.com/
ETF: SLF – WEEKLY
SLF is the tracking stock for the Property Sector.
SLF was up this week, 0.53%. It’s clawed back into the rising channel and is now at major overhead resistance. This could get interesting next week.
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, SLF Dividend Yield is 3.8%. Dividends are paid quarterly. The most recent Ex-dividend date was 31 March, 2014. Dividend was .0552 per share. That’s the lowest dividend since late 2011. (Next ex-dividend date is 31 March, 2014, Monday week.)
(SLF is the Exchange Traded Fund which tracks the performance of the Property Sector on the Australian stock market.)
ETF: WEEKLY STW
STW is the tracking stock for the ASX200 (JXO).
This week the ETF was moderately up, 0.55%. The 20-Day MA is above the 50-Day MA but the distance between the two is narrowing. The stock is in a trading range. Divergence on the CCI suggests the next movement will be down. That could just take the stock back to support.
At this stage, there is no reason to ditch this – on the other hand, there is no compelling reason to add to positions. Watch.
According to SMH, Dividend Yield is 4%. That’s about on a par with the dividend on 10-Year Government Bonds.
Dividends are paid half-yearly. The dividend announced on 23 December was124.92 c. That’s the best payout in the past 3 ½ years. Next dividend date is in late June, 2014. The stock is currently priced at $51.04, no mvoement from last week.