Amazing. Morning Joe. Friday, 19 December, 2014.

December 19, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:


Nasdaq Composite +2.24%.  New York Composite +2.15%.  Russell 2000 +1.47%.  Dow Industrials +2.43%.  SP500 +2.4%.

The rise out of the October correction was extraordinarily strong.  So, what do we call this now.  In the past two days, SP500 has gone up +4.5%.  The best the October rally could produce in two days was +2.2%.  In just two days, NH/NL Ratio has gone from <10% to >90%.  There aren’t enough superlatives around to describe the past two days.  Bloomberg noted that this two-day rise is the best since November, 2011 – over three years ago.  In late November, 2011, the SP500 surged +7.4% in one week.  And that set up the SP500 for the huge bull market that we’ve seen since then.

Here’s the SP500 Chart:


With this momentum, new highs on the SP500 seem to be inked in.  Indicators are nowhere near overbought as yet – so we should see more up moves in the near future.



CRB Index down -0.94%.  Energy was the big loser -3.01%.  Industrial Metals Group -0.63%.  Spot Iron Ore +0.1%.  GLD +0.77%.  U.S. Dollar +0.3%.

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP +0.86%.  Rio +0.57%.  Westpac +1.59%.  ANZ +2.44%.  EWA +1.86%.  (Yesterday I reported that EWA fell -2.85%.  I believe that was corrupted data and the true figure was +0.31%.)  Ozzie Dollar +0.45%.

Usually the AUD is negative if the US$ is positive – but not this time.  The GB Pound and Canadian Dollar also rose.  The big losers last night were the Euro, Swedish Krona and Japanese Yen.

The poor Industrial Metals prices might provide a brake on our Miners – but everything should be up again today.


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Do you believe in Santa? Last Call. Thursday, 18 December, 2014.

December 18, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up +0.9% on volume inflated by Options Expiry Day.  Here’s the chart for the XJO:


Well – the raw numbers look good – up 0.9%.  How many days up do you see like that on the Ozzie Market?  Well, they’re not rare – but not a common sight.

OK – so the numbers look good – until you realise the XJO was up more than twice that at one stage of the day, around 11.30 a.m. Sydney time.

Normally – I’d be wary of such a day – losing more than half its initial rise.  But maybe today’s action was a factor of a couple of things – profit taking on such a huge early move, disbelief by punters that the pull-back is over – and action on the Options Expiry event.  Dunno.  It’s always difficult to work out why something happened.

But …. on face value, today was a great up day.  Probably the start of the Santa Rally.  (Actually – it started yesterday.)

Some churlish folk simply won’t believe in Santa.  Bah Humbug.

Here’s the Daily Sector Performance Chart:

daily perf

It wasn’t all beer and skittles.  Consumer Discretionary was down as a result of Flight Centre falling more than -9% after releasing a profit down grade.  Property Trusts were down as a result of the biggest stock in the Index, Westfield, falling nearly -3%.  Why did Westfield fall?  Dunno.  Very recently I mentioned that WFD was a beneficiary of the falling AUD against the USD.  AUD was down last night -1.08%.  So … the Stock Market Gods strike again.

Given seasonal effects, this is probably the start of the Santa Rally.  It should continue into early January – if the Stock Market Gods, and Santa, play their part.


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Sleigh Bells? Morning Joe. Thursday, 18 December, 2014.

December 18, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:


nasdaq Composite +2.12%.  NY Composite +2.05%.  Russell 2000 +3.11%.  Dow Industrials +1.59%.  SP500 +2.04%.

Sleigh Bells were heard on Wall Street last night.  The market was well up at 2.00 p.m. (NY time) then Auntie Janet spoke and the market grew another leg.

It was an extraordinarily strong night, with great breadth.  TRIN on the NYSE was a breathtakingly low 0.44.  That’s the lowest close since mid-2012.  (A low TRIN means very good breadth.)

Here’s the detailed SP500 chart:

Screen Shot 2014-12-18 at 8.44.08 AM

The current candle at +2.04% is stronger than anything we saw in the strong bullish surge off the mid-October bull rally.  Many  factors were at play:  OpEx Week, FOMC Report, Seasonal Influences (Santa Rally), a move up in the Oil price, and a very oversold market.  It only needed a some buying to push this higher.  No doubt some short covering was also a factor in the strong figures.

In Commodities, despite a bullish U.S.$, Industrial Metals Group was up +0.31%, Energy up 0.73%.  Spot Iron Ore, however, fell modestly, down -0.3%.  GLD was also down -0.59%, affected by the bullish U.S.$.

BHP up +0.33%.  Rio up +4.78%.  Westpac -0.42%.  ANZ -0.2%.  EWA -2.85%.  Ozzie Dollar -1.13%.  I’m surprised the EWA was down that much even allowing for the poor Ozzie Dollar.

We should have a better day today – as my somewhat light hearted post last night suggested.


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Dont’ believe a word. Last Call. Wednesday. 17 December, 2014.

December 17, 2014 Leave a comment

Funny old day today in Australia.  Stinkin’ hot here in Brissie 35 Degrees C and the market went up and it went down.  Still – can’t complain – it finished up a bit +0.2%.  Better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick, as the sages used to say.

Volume?  What’s that got to do with the price of tea in Chile?  huh?  OK.  It was still on the low side.  Like yesterday, and the day before.   About 90% of the 20-Day Average.  All the wise gurus reckon that volume tells a story or three.  Low Volume?  Hell – I dunno.  Just tells me nobody wanted to trade today.  OK?  So that means?  They’ve gotta be waitin’ for something big to happen.  What do you reckon?  You’re just as good as me.  So, what do you reckon?

Anyways – here’s the chart for today:

Screen Shot 2014-12-17 at 6.52.31 PM

Lookin’ at that – Blind Charlie will tell ya (which he can’t cause he can’t see) that it was a funny old day today on the market.  That tiny little bit of yellow at the bottom of today’s candle tells ya that it was up.  But that tall skinny bit above it – that bit that looks like a rat’s tale tells ya it was up a lot more.

So – does it have any meaning?

Well – I’ve been to me alchemist’s bible – and I’ve noted from a few guys that have turned lead into metal, that today’s action, (it’s called an inverse hammer for us candle stick cognoscenti) after a big day down (which it was on Tuesday – and every other day for yonks) means  …………  (drum roll please maestro) …………………………. the market might go up tomorrow – if all the stars are aligned just right, and the guys from Goldman Sachs believe in Astronomy.

Me?  What do I reckon?  Who Cares?  But ……….. you know us true-blue Ozzie characters ………  who can stop us giving an opinion on Climate Change, Gough Whitlam, Kevin (I’m here to help) Rudd, Julia, our current PM  (the Budgie Smuggler) –  and the last race at Doomben this Saturday.

Well, Punters.  Just have a look at that big red line going right across the chart.  If that isn’t a brick wall to bounce the tennis ball off – I dunno what is.  Yep – gotta bounce right off the wall on to the other side?  See what I mean.  Of course, you never know.  It just might go right over that wall on the topside.

Of course, me, with me wonky eyes, might have it all wrong.

Anyways – that’s what I’m thinkin’.  What are you thinkin’?

I tell ya what though – them Indians look like takin’ the Tests to One All.  But – cricket’s like the stock market – anything can happen.


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Bulls Fail. Morning Joe. Wednesday, 17 December, 2014

December 17, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:


Nasdaq Composite -1.24%.  New York Composite -0.2%.  Russell 2000 -0.08%.  Dow Industrials -0.65%.  SP500 -0.85%.

At around 11.30 a.m. NY time, the Dow 30 was up about 200 points, it finished down over 100 points.  Bulls tried hard today but failed.  On the plus side, the R2K was barely negative and the broadest market average, the NY Composite, was much better than either Dow 30 and SP500.

NH/NL Ratio was <10% for the second day in a row.  Back in mid-October we had to see four days in a row <10% before we had a reversal to the upside.  So we could be in for another couple of days.

Here’s the detailed SP500 Chart:

Screen Shot 2014-12-17 at 8.41.52 AM

The SP500 is very oversold on the RSI and on the CCI it is showing a possible positive divergence.  The chart is down to the 100-Day Moving Average.  So a kick to the upside is possible.  Price action on the chart is not yet showing indications of a reversal to the upside.

In Commodities, the Industrial Metals Complex was down -0.92%.  Spot Iron Ore was down -0.7%.  GLD was up +0.49%.

In NY, BHP +0.2%, Rio +3.34%, Westpac +0.19%, ANZ -0.22%, EWA +0.41%.  All those Australian stocks were up much higher earlier in the day.  But given that Australia was down yesterday -0.7%, there’s some optimism creeping back into the Australian stocks.

We could surprise today despite the weakness in America.


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At Support. Postprandials. Tuesday, 16 December, 2014.

December 16, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO down -0.65%. Volume was below average.


Yesterday, XJO bounced off a major support level. That was looking good. Today it sits right on that same major support level. We need to see an up day tomorrow. Otherwise, we’re likely to see much lower on this index.

On the plus side, the RSI has now reached the extreme oversold level below 30. It finished today at 29.1. It could, of course, get more oversold. But a low is not far off.

Until we see some definite chart action to the upside, we have to continue with the mantra: The Trend is Down.

Whisper. (But …….. I really don’t think there’s much more in it.)


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Volatility rises. Morning Joe. Tuesday, 16 December, 2014.

December 16, 2014 Leave a comment

Shorter report than usual today.

Detailed chart for the SP500:

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 9.43.20 AM

Very oversold on the RSI and CCI. So a bounce is possible. Those odds are increased a little by the chart being at a minor support level and close to the 100-Day Moving Average. Other indicators could still go lower. Volume today was again high but still not at the wash-out levels seen in mid-October. NH/NL Ratio on the NYSE has dropped below 10%. We might need to see a couple more days like that before we see a jump back up in the SP500.

Volatility is getting to panic levels.

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 9.49.53 AM

Vix is now at levels seen after the big pull-back in February, but still not as high as in mid-October. So – again there is a chance of upside movement in stocks, but we might need to see higher levels before the end.

Technicals are at levels where a bottom could be found but there’s still no indication in price action on the Index to suggest that we’re there yet.


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