Another Day – Another BTD. Morning Coffee, Saturday, 30 August, 2014

August 30, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

cgg

Nasdaq Composite +0.5%. New York Composite +0.33%. Russell 2000 +0.72%. Dow Industrials +0.11%. SP500 +0.33%.

Dow Industrials was relatively the weakest. A narrow range inside day. All the indices showed intra-day buying, and all finished on the positive side (unlike the previous two days).

The market fell until the usually crucial 10.30 time frame (NY time) then rose sharply. The indices actually displayed an ABCD pattern (down, up, down, up) with the C leg a long shallow affair from around noon to 3.00 p.m. The market then surged in the last hour to take it up to around the highs set at noon.

This mini-pull back in the middle of the week might be over. We’re probably going to see one more leg to the upside in this run-up from early August. We’ll see.

I thought volumes might be very low – given that it was the day before a long week-end. But it was the last day on the month – sometimes money flows into stocks on the last couple of days of the month.

Here’s the detailed SP500 Chart:

spx

The RSI.9 remains in the overbought region. With such a reading, any further upside (mentioned above) is likely to see selling into strength. But – the way this market has worked for the past couple of years, any pull-back will be bought.

Commodities:

Commods

CRB Index up +0.48%. Industrial Metals bounced off the 20-Day MA, up +0.65%. Copper up 0.27%. Precious Metals -0.28%. GLD (ETF for Gold) -0.11%.

Oz Stocks in New York:

BHP +0.59%. Rio +0.09%. Westpac +0.24%. ANZ +0.03%. EWA +0.07%. Ozzie Dollar -0.19%.

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Ukraine – Hmmmmm. Morning Java, Friday, 29 August, 2014

August 29, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

CGG

Nasdaq Composite -0.26%. New York -0.26%. Russell 2000 -0.58%. Dow Industrials -0.25%. SP500 -0.17%.

The media was full of new developments in the Ukraine – spreading fear and dread into the investing public – NOT. The market opened down, but the Dip-Buyers almost immediately hit the buy buttons and sent indices back up, not all the way, but a convincing intra-day rally. Dow Industrials was down more than triple digits before 10.00 a.m. NY time – and finished down just over 40 points. Well above the mid-point of the daily range. Most other indices underwent similar intra-day buying. The weakest was the Russell 2000, but even that saw strong intra-day buying in the first hour.

In America, we’re coming up to the Labor Day Weekend. In the past seven years, the SP500 in the week preceding the Labor Day Weekend has generally been weak. Six years out of seven have been down. This year might buck the trend. The past two days have been mildly negative but, so far, the week is up +0.42%. A big down down day on Friday could keep the recent history intact.

SP500 bounced nicely off support last night. Here’s the detailed chart:

Screen Shot 2014-08-29 at 9.19.16 AM

Some intra-day selling occurred on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday saw intra-day buying. At this stage, we’re looking at consolidation wearing off the overbought conditions.

The first few days after Labor Day have a tendency to be weak, but nothing dramatic.

September is one of the weaker months – down about 60% of the time. Bigger falls tend to occur late in the month. That might be the time to be cautious.

Commodities:

commods

CRB Index up modestly +0.31$. The big move came in Industrial Metals -0.83%. Copper down -1.4%. Iron Ore -1%. Precious Metals +0.56%, but showed intra-day selling after hitting the 20-Day MA. GLD (Gold ETF) up +0.55%.

Oz stocks in New York:

BHP down heavily -2.01%. Rio even worse -3.59%. Westpac flat -0.12%. ANZ down -0.61%. EWA +0.07%. Ozzie Dollar +0.26%. The upward movement in the Ozzie Dollar makes the performances of the Ozzie stocks look even worse.

With weak Copper and Iron Ore, and poor results in BHP and Rio overnight, our miners will be weak today. If our market is going to be saved, it will be up to the Financials. They seem unlikely to be very strong today.

Woolworths, one of the 20-Leader Stocks, reports today. That report is out already. In the pre-market, Woolworths is down about -1%.

Redbacka

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Some volatility. Postprandials, Thursday, 28 August, 2014

August 28, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO down -0.47%. That’s the biggest range we’ve seen in five days. It still wasn’t large, but the doldrums seem to be behind us. Expect things to hot up a little from here.

Volume was exceptionally high – that’s a result of Options Expiry Day. Nothing to get concerned about.

Here’s the XJO Chart:

XJO

Last Thursday’s needle is starting to look more and more like a “top”.  We never know for sure until retrospectively.

Today’s candle is a bearish engulfing. The close today was marginally below the low of the previous pivot set on Monday. Still not conclusive enough.

But – indicators continue to roll over – this looks to have a lot more to fall.

I thought this morning that there was a possibility that the Financials, and maybe BHP, might stop the rot. Financials x-Property down -0.2% and BHP down -1.21%. The Financials were relatively muted – but still far from positive.

I haven’t been optimistic about BHP since the break-away gap (downside) last week. But I thought it might get a bit of a relief bounce about now. But it’s not to be. I still think, medium term, BHP is going back to the bottom of its trading range.

See you in the morning.

Redbacka

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Ennui. Yes – I need a Cup of Morning Coffee. Thursday, 28 August, 2014.

August 28, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

Nasdaq Composite -0.02%. New York Composite -0.11%. Russell 2000 -0.21%. Dow Industrials +0.09%. SP500 +0.00%.

cgg

Virtually no movement in the major indices. The little note of optimism in the Russell 2000 yesterday has disappeared. Volume has dried up. That doesn’t mean a lot but if we get another couple of narrow range days on higher volume – we might be seeing the seeds of a reversal. RSI.9 on all indices except R2K (the weakest) is now above 70 – overbought. So the odds of a pull-back are increasing. But overbought readings can always be worked off with sideways action.

Here’s the detailed chart for the SP500:

SPX

RSI.9 and MFI are both into overbought regions. They often require negative divergences before we see significant downward movement. CCI has moved down – indicating that momentum has stalled. Again – we may need to see negative divergence before this trend finishes.

The current trend is now about the same range as the May rise – but that only brought relief to the bears for a couple of days. But that sort of pull-back is now looking more likely.

Commodities:

commods

Except for the Industrial Metals, all these charts are in bearish profiles. They’ve worked off oversold readings on RSI.9 with sideways consolidations. There may be upside movement, but until the 20-Day MA crosses over the 50-Day MA, any upward movement would have to be considered a counter-trend movement.

CRB Index +0.05%. Industrial Metals -0.09%, and formed a bearish “hangman” candle. One day candles are notoriously unreliable – we’d have to see a big down day to confirm. Copper down -0.2%. Iron Ore -0.8%. Iron ore is now at 88.2. I remember the gnashing of teeth when it fell below 100. There doesn’t see any respite for the iron ore miners.

GLD (ETF for Gold) -0.02%. Ukrainian news and a lower US$ still couldn’t budge Gold last night.

OZ Stocks in New York:

BHP +0.72%. Rio -0.45%. Westpac +0.67%. ANZ +0.74%. EWA +0.37% – and broken above horizontal resistance. Oz Dollar +0.29%. So – most of the movement in EWA was due to currency movements.

Reports from large companies today: Ramsay Health, Qantas, Atlas Iron. Companies like these always make for interesting news stories – by the results won’t move the broad market.

The Financials had a good run yesterday up about 0.6%. It seems they’ll be carrying the can again today.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Telstra goes ex-dividend. Postprandials, Wednesday, 27 August, 2014

August 27, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up +0.24% today. Volume was heavy – inflated by dividend-stripping in Telstra – but even taking out the increased volume in Telstra, Volume was still heavy at about 110% of the 20-Day Average Volume.

Screen Shot 2014-08-27 at 6.51.53 PM

Today was a very narrow range day – only 0.26% from low to high. I started looking back to see when we had a similar narrow range day – but gave up after going back about five weeks. That was enough to convince me about the narrowness of the day.

So – we had a very narrow range day on high volume. Looks to me like there’s a lot of selling into strength. (If the volume figures can be believed – but that’s another story for another time.)

We still need to see a wide range down day to confirm a top in this market – although that needle on 21 August is looking more convincing.

BHP:

Screen Shot 2014-08-27 at 6.58.00 PM

BHP finished up 0.3% today – and appears to be bouncing nicely off the dual support of the 100-Day and 200-Day MA. (I haven’t marked the 200-Day on this chart – but it coincides more or less with the 100-Day).

Unless overseas events intervene, a nice counter-trend rally looks likely. I’m still not confident longer term.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

New Tops – Dow 30 & SPX. Morning Java. Wednesday, 27 August, 2014.

August 27, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

Nasdaq Composite +0.29%. New York Composite +0.18%. Russell 2000 +0.85%. Dow Industrials +0.17%. SP500 0.11%.

CGG

NYA, Dow 30 and SPX all suffered intra-day selling. Russell 2000 was surprisingly strong – so the selling didn’t extend to the small caps. That’s a positive.

Despite the Nasdaq Composite being up nine of the past ten days (and the only down day was marginal) and being at multi-year highs, NewHighs/NewLows are still not showing expected strength. New Highs today amounted to 109, back in early July they got over 200. In late February and early March they had a string of readings above 200. New Lows in this session numbered 33 and are still in the “nervous zone” between 25 and 50. In early March, we saw several readings of single digits. Something’s not looking right in the Nasdaq Composite – I’d expect breadth to be stronger than this after such a strong surge. RSI.9 on the COMPQ is now nudging up to the 80 level. That’s the extreme level. It can go over 80 – but once over 80 a pull-back is almost assured.

Here’s the detailed chart for the SP500:

Screen Shot 2014-08-27 at 9.45.41 AM

The chart is still nudging up against oblique resistance with RSI.9 overbought. Momentum (see the flat MACD Histogram bars) has slowed. More consolidation or a pull-back is likely.

I’m a bit late with the report today – so I won’t do a lengthy summary of OZ stocks in NY or Commodities. But, Copper was down -0.3% and Iron Ore fell again -0.3%. So those stats might subdue our miner today. Godl (GLD) rose +0.5% even though the US$ was a tad stronger at +0.09%. So our Gold Miners might finally get some relief. BHP fell moderately in the US -0.46%. Rio down -0.82% had saw strong intra-day buying.

Again today – we’ll probably be a bit flat, perhaps up a bit – but I can’t see much in it.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Inertia. Postprandials, Tuesday, 26 August, 2014

August 26, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up +0.05%. Volume was up a little.

We had a narrow range, inside day. Quite simply – that’s inertia. It will yield.  One way or the other.

Here’s the XJO chart:

Screen Shot 2014-08-26 at 8.10.19 PM

The overbought conditions are being worked off. Indicators such they could fall a lot further. That doesn’t mean much.

That big pipe four days ago looked menacing – but unless followed by a big down day – they can quickly revert to the upside. We haven’t seen a big down day yet.

BHP was down a little today, but showed intra-day buying pressure. As I’ve indicated previously, this is a critical support level. It’s the confluence of the 100-Day and 200-Day MA. A bounce here is expected. We probably got the start of that today. But we have to wait and see.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized
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