Major Indices Spread. Morning Java. Friday, 31 October, 2014

October 31, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

cgg

Nasdaq Composite +0.37%. New York Composite +0.59%. Russell 2000 +0.82%. Dow Industrials +1.3%. SP500 +0.62%.

That’s quite a wide spread between the major indices. The big rise in the Dow Industrials can be explained by the performance of Visa. Visa is the biggest component in the Dow 30 – making up more than 8% of the index. Visa was up more than 10% today – so about 80% of the rise in the Dow Industrials was due to Visa.

Not shown in the above Chart Group is the chart for Dow Transports which was down -0.96% in this session. Including that data into the set of major indices – and we get a very unbalanced market. Unbalanced markets tend to come back into equilibrium – usually in the direction of the weakest member.

Here’s the chart for the SP500:

spx

RSI.9 is still below the overbought level of 70. Other indicators are elevated but not extremely so. I see no reason to expect that a pull-back is imminent. The chart is now back into the top congestion zone. We can expect things to get ‘sticky’ around here. A test of the highs around 2020 appear likely. The Index finished at 1995 today. So that’s another +1.25%. If that happens quickly – then the market will be very overbought. If things slow down, the market might gather strength to go on to new all time highs.

Commodities

DBC (ETF tracking the CRB Index) down -0.84%. Copper was down -0.57%. (I don’t have a current Iron Ore price.) West Texas Intermediate Crude was down -1.01%. GLD took another beating -1.09%. U.S.$ up +0.21%.

Here’s the chart for the American Gold Miners Index:

gdx

Anybody want to catch a falling knife? The Index is well oversold. There’s a nice positive divergence showing up on the Money Flow Index. I’ve been caught before getting hopeful about the Goldies – indicators suggest a good move might come soon. Just remember – the trend is down. Any move up is likely to be a counter-trend move which will be sold into. There’s probably much better options around.

OZ stocks in NY:

BHP -0.05% with solid intra-day buying. Rio -1.38%. Back to support. Westpac +1.77%. Remember that in the previous session was down -3.38%. (All is forgiven?) ANZ +1.9%. EWA +1.52%. Ozzie Dollar +0.48%. Ozzie stocks in New York have been gyrating wildly the past couple of days. It’s difficult to make sense of it. Changes in the Ozzie Dollar are part of the picture – but the rest of it is a mystery.

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America. PFFT! Postprandials. Thursday, 30 October, 2014

October 30, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up moderately – volume above average.

xjo

Australian stocks were sent to the wood-shed last night in America. So much for America. Well – don’t be too cocky. Miners felt a cold chill. XMM down -0.7%, and Gold Miners slammed down -2.4%.

Who’d want to enter the market at these levels? RSI.9 overbought with a reading of 72.4. MACD Histogram is struggling. Nope – not for me. I might get a nose bleed.

Despite the bullish finish today, breadth was not so warm. AdvancingVolume/DecliningVolume was a bearish 44.9%.

Despite the up day – a lot of selling was going on behind the scenes.

Redbacka

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Fed ends QE3. Morning Java, Thursday, 30 October, 2014

October 30, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 9.08.56 AM

Nasdaq Composite -0.33%. New York Composite -0.29%. Russell 2000 -0.27%. Dow Industrials -0.18%. SP500 -0.14%.

Indices were down modestly.

The Fed announcement about the ending of QE3 came out at 2.00 p.m. New York time. The announcement was a confirmation of the ending of QE3. No surprises there. A degree of volatility occurred, with the market initially falling. The Dow Jones finished two hours later about where it was when the announcement was made. Volume was up a little – so today’s result had a slight bearish slant to it – but doesn’t mean much unless we get a big down day in the next session. Given the big up day yesterday – it’s not surprising that the indices had a pause day today. The Fed announcement added a bit of juice when it came out – but really didn’t amount to much.

Here’s the detailed SP500 Chart:

SP500

The chart is back to an old horizontal support/resistance level which goes back to July. That held the Index for nearly a month before a short-term pull-back occurred. A similar consolidation period could occur here after such a strong up thrust. Indicators are high enough (though not overbought) to suggest the market could go into a holding pattern.

Commodities:

commods

CRB Index +1.03%. Energy looks as if it has broken out of its sideways consolidation, up +1.31%, but is now hitting up against the 20-Day MA – that could hold it. Industrial Metals continued its run, +1.03%. Copper up +0.3%, but Iron Ore down -0.3%. GLD down -1.43%. It was down moderately at 2.00 p.m. when the Fed announcement came out – then it was thumped. It’s likely that the ending of QE3 will help put a floor under the American Dollar – which will be a negative for Gold. US$ +0.75%.

OZ stocks in NY:

BHP -1.36% with a bearish engulfing candle. Rio -2.6%. Westpac -3.38%. ANZ -1.44% with a strong bearish three-day candle reversal pattern. EWA was very ugly – 1.74%. Ozzie Dollar -0.75%. It looks as if American investors are selling down Australian stocks – big time.

Redbacka

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Weird Wacky Wednesday. Postprandials, Wednesday, 29 october, 2014

October 29, 2014 Leave a comment

I’ve finally got things working again. For how long? I merely bow to the tech Gods.

Today in Australia, Weird.

The final result for the XJO – flat -0.09%, after being up much higher early in the day. Volume was elevated at 115.6% of the 20-Day Average. That’s significant.

We now have in the past two days – two narrow range candles. The first is a “hangman”, the second is a “tombstone”. The symbolism is obvious.

Here’s the XJO chart:

xjo

Yesterday was mildly overbought (RSI.9 above 70). Now, all indicators have turned down.

But the really WEIRD thing about today was the market structure. (Besides the glitches I’ve been having with my computer.)

Here’s the daily Sector Performance chart:

Sector Perf

Today’s action was really a revolt against the Financials. Financials down -10.9%. Telecoms down marginally -0.1%. Mid-cap 50 up +0.5%. Small Ords up +0.5%.

Today’s market still had plenty of confidence built into it.

I’ve been rabbiting on about Financials for a while. Yesterday they were up eleven days in a row. Seven days up is rare. Go figure.

Was there any adverse news about the banking sector today? None that I could find.

Nope. Today was a technical reaction against an overbought Financial Sector.

Tomorrow’s another day.

And soon JY speaks on behalf of the Federal Reserve.

Redbacka

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Malfunction

October 29, 2014 Leave a comment

I have a serious malfunction on my computer. Until I get it sorted, I won’t be making any more posts. Hopefully, this is only a short term problem.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Manic? Morning Java. Wednesday, 29 October, 2014.

October 29, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

Screen Shot 2014-10-29 at 6.15.28 AM

Nasdaq Composite +1.75%. New York Composite +1.24%. Russell 2000 +2.86%. Dow Industrials +1.12%. SP500 +1.19%.

Is this trend now entering the “manic” phase? These were very large one-day rises coming after nine days into this short term up trend. The blue chips and large caps were relatively subdued compared with, for example, the Russell 2000 which was up nearly +3%. Volumes were down in the blue chips and large caps – while they increased in the broad market indices (Nasdaq Composite and New York Composite.) Punters seem to be throwing caution to the winds and are now piling into the more speculative end of the market. This can go on for a while.

Here’s the detailed chart for the SP500:

SP500

The SP500 easily cut through the 50-Day and 100-Day MAs as if they weren’t there. This is a very strong market. The RSI.9 is still not registering overbought (above 70). So there’s no reason to suspect that and end is imminent.

Commodities:

Commodities

CRB Index flat +0.07%, but showed strong intra-day buying. Energy was up +0.58% but remains in a sideways consolidation. Industrial Metals up +1.16%. This confirms the ‘bull flag’ I mentioned yesterday. Some more upside seems likely. Copper was up >1% in London. But Spot Iron Ore fell again, down -1%. GLD flat +0.03%. Gold Miners Index (GDX) was up +2.09%. It continues to struggle for upside traction at a major support level. U.S. Dollar -0.18%

OZ stocks in New York:

BHP +1.41%. Rio +1.78%. Westpac +2.58%. ANZ +1.73%. EWA +1.72%. EWA has now retraced about 50% of the recent fall from 3 September. Fibonacci players will be watching this level. Oz Dollar +0.59%.

That Iron Ore figure should give some of our miners a pause today, but it didn’t affect Rio in the U.S. last night. So I think any bearish sentiment will be subdued.

Our Financials are now likely to be up for the twelfth day in a row. The RSI.9 now looks likely to nudge 80 today. There’s not much more in this. But – three big banks (ANZ, NAB, WBC( go ex-dividend around 7-10 November. So the dividend junkies might just continue to push this up for a while.

Here’s the chart for the Financials as of Tuesday:

Financials

Tonight in the U.S., the Federal Reserve gives its interest rate decision. That could be a market moving event.

Redbacka

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Narrow range day. Tuesday, Postprandials, 28 October, 2014.

October 28, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO down -0.12%. Today’s range was the narrowest since 29 Auugst. Volume was a little above average.

xjo

The market today was, to say the least, incoherent. Many sector indices showed intra-day rebounds, but the timing of those movements saw no coordination in those movements. That’s a bit odd. There was no particular news event that moved the market consistently.

Breadth markers were weak. A/D Ratio was 43.4%. AdvancingVol/DecliningVol Ratio was 41.6%.

Indicators, except the MACD Histogram, turned down. RSI.9 is moderately overbought. Bollinger %B is moderately overbought. This usually require negative divergences before the market turns down.

At this stage, this looks like a bit of a blip in the continued upward surge of the market. But those odd movements in the market today may, or may not, mean something. Time will tell.

But – narrow range days on increased volume – are not a good sign. Nothing more than a sign – but an indication that the battle between the bulls and bears is beginning to warm up. It might take a few days yet for the bears to get the upper hand.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized
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