Postprandials, Tuesday, 29 July, 2014

July 29, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up 0.2% on low volume.

xjo

The index is range bound. It’s in a consolidation pattern at the top of the range. The odds favour a breakout to the upside.

Here’s the Daily Sector Performance Chart:

Daily sector performance

This suggests caution is creeping into the market. The four best performers today were defensives. The other sectors all remained within a narrow range of +0.2% to -0.2%.

So the chart suggests some slight bullishness. Sector analysis suggests some slight bearishness.

Neutral.

Redbacka

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Morning Coffee, Tuesday, 29 July, 2014

July 29, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

SP500 +0.03%, Dow Industrials +0.13%, Nasdaq 100 +0.05%, New York Composite +0.01%, Russell 2000 -0.46%, Transport -1.13%.

cgg

Markets dropped sharply at the opening after Home Sales data. Then recovered – and slid sideways in the afternoon session. (Trannies went across the grain.) That looks to me like traders are going to wait until the Fed speaks in the Wednesday afternoon session (NY time).

SP500:

Screen Shot 2014-07-29 at 9.09.47 AM

The current trading range is clear on the above chart. For two days, SPX crept above the upper boundary – but that’s not usually how break outs occur. And now it is sitting back in the range. Today’s long tailed doji offers the bulls some hope – but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that. This week has lots of market moving data coming out – so that candle looks to me like a wait-and-see sign.

Institutional action in the large caps can hold indices steady. Breadth statistics in such cases are often a better representation of market sentiment. (I spent a fair amount of space in the Weekend Report on Breadth.) Here are up-dated charts for the Advance/Decline Line and the AdvancingVolume/DeclineVolume Line for the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and Amex:

breadth

They all declined, in some cases strongly, while the large cap and blue chip indices remained flat. Not a good sign.

To add some meat to that view – New Lows soared on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. New Lows hit 60 on the NYSE and 80 on the Nasdaq. Those figures are well up on anything seen for about three months.

A lot of selling is going on in the broad market which is being masked by action in the blue chips and the large caps.

Commodities:

Screen Shot 2014-07-29 at 9.21.51 AM

CRB Index -0.01%. Industrial Metals +0.22%. IMs are the only commodity group where the chart is above both the 20-Day and 50-Day MA, and the 20-Day is above the 50-Day. That’s the strong point for Australia – particularly the Miners. Copper, the bell wether in the IMs, was up modestly +0.21%. Precious Metals flat at -0.01%. US$ Gold down a bit -0.17%.

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP -0.11%. Rio +0.53%. (Rio had a wide range doji candle at the top of its range. That’s often an ominous sign. We need to see a big down day before getting too pessimistic.) Westpac +0.03%. It remains in a tight sideways consolidation. ANZ -0.5%. It is also in a sideways consolidation. EWA +0.37%. Ozzie Dollar +0.1%.

I can’t see that there’s much in any of that for Australia today. We’ll probably be in wait mode like the Americans. The opening will probably have a downward bias – but I can’t see a lot happening today.

Redbacka

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Postprandials, Monday, 28 July, 2014

July 28, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO down a bit today -0.1% on volume a bit above average. A bitsy day. The market was down early, rose till about the start of the lunch break, then chopped sideways the rest of the day. Nothing much to comment on.

xjo daily

The market has been overbought (RSI above 70) – now its slowly working that off. At this stage nothing dramatic is happening.

Here’s the Daily Sector Performance Chart:

Sector Perf

Clearly the Miners (and associated indices like XSO, Materials, Gold Miners) was the best performer today. Nothing new in that. Everything else was down a bit or flat. Situation normal. Carry on.

The Asian markets did much better than us. Japan up +0.46%. Hong Kong +0.88%. Shanghai up +2.41%. Shanghai seems to be rising as a result of the coming HongKong/Shanghai Connect where Hong Kong brokers will be able to deal on the Chinese market (within limits). The market seems to be viewing this as an opportunity to re-rate the Shanghai market. Whether or not this is fundamentally driven, or not, is a moot point. But the surge in the Shanghai market can’t be denied.

Action in our Gold Miners was favourable today. I mentioned in my Weekend Report that I thought we might see a turnaround in our Goldies. Today’s candle was a bullish engulfing candle which suggests more upside. A move up to the top of the recent short term range seems likely – about 5%. But, if my optimism is well-place, we might see a lot more.

Screen Shot 2014-07-28 at 10.01.03 PM

Redbacka

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Sunday Smorgasbord, Weekly Report, week ending 25 July, 2014

July 27, 2014 Leave a comment

CONTENTS

Australian Market: Sector Relative Strengths.

Australian Market. XJO – Monthly Chart

Australian Market. XJO – Weekly Chart

Australian Market. XJO – Daily Chart

Australian Market: STW – Daily Chart

American Market: Sector Relative Strengths.

American Market: Major Indices.

American Market: Market Breadth Indicators

International Market: China Daily

Commodities: Copper Futures Weekly

Gold

Summary and Conclusion

SLF – Weekly

AUSTRALIAN MARKET:SECTOR RELATIVE STRENGTHS

OZ RS Sectors

Oz Bull Bear

This week the broad market index (XJO) was up +0.94%. Despite that rise, the Sector Structure remained unchanged with four sectors on Bear Status. These sectors are: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health and Materials.

The three strongest sectors, as measured by RS (the distance of the stock above/below its 100-Day MA) are: Telecoms (104.2), Materials (103.9) and Information Technology(104.1). Energy is also fairly strong with a reading of 103. Materials until recently was one of the worst performers in the SP Sectors. It is, however, still on Bear Status with the 50-Day MA well below the 100-Day MA. So the current good performance may simply be range trading. It is now at the top of its range and may be due for a pull back.

Gold Mining this week has moved back into Bull Status with the 50-Day above the 100-Day MA. The Index had a pull-back late in the week, so long as it can bounce here – we could see much more upside in the medium term. See chart later in this report.

The strongest of all the sectors and sub-sectors is the Property Sector. This often has a life of its own not moved by general market movements.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET:MONTHLY CHART – XJO

xjo monthly

The XJO is currently up +3.48% this month – with just four days left in this month.

The large dominant chart pattern is the Rising Wedge marked on the chart. Being a monthly chart, the Index could conceivably remain within that wedge for months to come. It is essentially a bearish formation.

At this stage in the month, XJO appears to be in break-out mode from its recent consolidation going back to April. It’s above the April high. If it can maintain that break out until the end of the month, this will look good for further upside.

I’ve mentioned many times that the Australian market is affected by two main forces – America and China. China had a great week this week and appears to have set up the potential for a break upwards from its long term secular down trend. America, on the other hand, is overbought and the medium term up trend after Friday’s action could be in danger. (See charts for both America and China later in this report.) If those two influences pan out – we may continue to see a bifurcated market in Australia – Resources up, Financials down.

Indicators are showing potential bearish divergences – which supports the notion of a move lower. We’re getting into interesting territory.

At this stage, the trend remains up. We’ll know the very long term trend has changed to bearish when the Rising Wedge and 20-Month Moving Average are broken to the downside. That does not appear imminent. That should also be accompanied by a break by the MACD Histogram below its zero line. It is currently holding just above its zero line MACD Histogram has been on a bullish break above zero since September, 2012.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET:WEEKLY CHART – XJO

XJO Weekly

The XJO finished the week at 5531.6, up +0.94%. The Index is now at the upper edge of a Rising Wedge formation. This is a smaller formation than the one mentioned in the Monthly discussion. (Wheels within wheels.)

The Index is currently above a shorter term oblique down trend line and a horizontal S/R line going back to October, 2013. This is promising – but the Index still needs to break out of the Rising Wedge formation. The momentum lies to the upside at this stage. The coming week could be crucial. The Index has been above the 50-Week MA since August, 2012.

Indicators:
MACD Histogram. Marginally above zero. Neutral.
MACD. Above zero – but showing a negative divergence
RSI.9  is at 67.4. Positive
CCI.14: 204.4. Extremely overbought.

The CCI reading is of concern. That’s the highest reading since the end of the GFC back in early 2009. We might need to see a negative divergence on this indicator before a break-down occurs. That could be some weeks away.

Rarely does the CCI reach such levels without a pull-back sometime in the near future. On weekly chart – that could still mean a few weeks. This is a warning sign.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET:DAILY CHART – XJO

XJO Daily

This week the index broke out of its recent trading range only to bump into overhead oblique resistance. It has now paused. Given action in America and Europe on Friday, we are likely to see a big down day on Monday. If we get that, it would be a bearish event.

Indicators:
MACD Histogram. Above zero. Positive.
MACD. Above zero. Positive.
RSI.9  is at 72. Overbought.
CCI.14: +124.4 and falling. Overbought.

The market has broken out – but not confidently. Wednesday’s surge wasn’t followed through on Thursday and Friday where the index met oblique resistance.

The Indicators (esp. RSI and CCI) suggest a pull back is due.

The other factor to watch is the closeness of the 50-Day and 100-Day MA. A negative x-over as the index falls through them would be very bearish. But let’s deal with that when (if) it happens.

At this stage, the trend is up and in pause mode while it negotiates overhead resistance.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET:DAILY CHART – STW

STW Daily

STW is the tracking ETF for the XJO. It was up this week 0.72% while the XJO was up 0.94%. A small difference.

Checking the STW against the XJO sometimes reveals important differences and added information.

I don’t have accurate volume data for the XJO but I do have for the STW. And that data is directly relevant to the instrument, where the volume for the XJO is “synthetic” – it is an accumulation of the individual stocks in the XJO. It may or may not indicate investor sentiment towards the XJO and can be distorted by big/small volumes in one of the big stocks in the XJO.

It may be significant that the STW, unlike the XJO, hasn’t yet broken out above horizontal resistance.

Of more importance is the data on volume. MFI has now moved into the Sell Zone.

Wednesday’s action is particularly revealing. While the XJO surged strongly (up +0.6%), the STW had a big reversal day. Up strongly, then fell. It finished up +0.35%, after being up much higher earlier in the day. That occurred on heavy volume. Somebody with long pockets was selling the ETF quite strongly during the day. Some institutions rely heavily on the STW as the means for tracking the XJO. That is a cost effective method of tracking the Index. The other way to do it is to hold a basket of representative stocks – which is a costly exercise keeping the basket tracking the Index. So it seems likely that a big institution wasn’t convinced about the viability of the rise on Wednesday. Action on Thursday/Friday makes such a move quite prescient.

AMERICAN MARKET:SECTOR RELATIVE STRENGTHS

US RS Sectors

U.S. Bull Bear

This is similar to the charts above for the Australian market.

The SP500 was barely changed this week, up just +0.01%. That followed the previous week which, although up, was a narrow range week. The Index has now been in a trading range for the past four weeks.

For the month of July, the SP500 is up +0.92%.

The Americans are in the grips of a strong bull market. All Sectors show Relative Strength above +100 and all Sectors are showing Bull Status Flags. The weakest sector is the Russell 2000 – represented here by the IWM which is the tracking ETF for the R2K. This is a concern as the R2K is one proxy for breadth. (See below for more breadth charts.) The RS is barely above par (100%).

Technical analysts usually get concerned if breadth is narrowing, as markets can’t keep going up on fewer and fewer stocks. This often portends a pull back.

AMERICAN MARKET:MAJOR INDICES

US MAJOR INDICES

This is a set of six charts: NYA – New York Composite Index, COMPQ – Nasdaq Composite Index, OEX – S&P 100 Index, NDX – Nasdaq 100 Index, SPX – S&P500 Index, INDU – Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Four out of the six indices are above their 20-Day MA: COMPX, OEX, NDX, SPX.

Two out of the six cut below their 20-Day MA on Friday: NYA and INDU.

That’s interesting as NYA is the broadest measure of the market comprising all common stock on the NY Stock Exchange (about 2000 stocks), while INDU is the narrowest measure comprising 30 large blue chip companies.

The INDU is one of the most commonly watched indices in the world. Perversely, despite being made up of blue chips – it often leads the market during significant market moves.

At this stage, using a Relative Strength criterion, INDU is the weakest of this set of indices as it is the furthest below the 20-Day MA. The next weakest is the broadest measure – NYA, New York Composite, which has marginally broken below its 20-Day MA.

Friday’s action in all indices is now looking bearish. The four indices still above their 20-Day MA saw a gap down at the open on Friday which was never recovered. That often occurs at the beginning of bear trends.

AMERICAN MARKET:MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS

U.S. Breadth charts

U.S. Bullish Percent

Here are two sets of different types of breadth indicators for the American markets.

In the first set, the left column of three charts shows the Cumulative Advance/Decline Lines for the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and Amex Exchanges. (Amex is an exchange for high growth, small cap stocks.) All three show declines since highs in early July. That’s been occurring while the SP500 is up 0.92%.

The right column of three charts shows the Cumulative AdvancingVolume/DecliningVolume for the same three stock markets.

Once again, all three show declines from earlyJuly/late June.

The second set of six charts shows the Bullish Percent charts for six different Indices (NY Composite, Nasdaq, S&P100, Nasdaq 100, S&P500, Dow Industrials). BP charts show the percentage of stocks in an index which are on “buy” signals. Every one of these charts shows the BP dropping below their respective 20-Day Averages. That’s taken as a “sell” signal for the index.

No matter how I look at what is happening in the American markets, I see only negative divergences between breadth and the major market indices.

This looks like a house built on sand.

CHINA – DAILY

China88

The Chinese market had a big rise this week, up 5%. Such large weekly rises in the Chinese market are not uncommon, but this week’s was a little more unusual. Thursday saw a big gap up taking the Index way above the upper Bollinger. This saw follow-through buying on Friday.

This is probably an artefact of what’s now known as the Shanghai-HongKong Connect or the “through-train”. In October, stock brokers in Hong Kong will be able to buy and sell shares in Shanghai and vice versa – within certain daily limits. This will also allow international investors easy access to the Chinese market via Hong Kong brokers.

The daily chart is now clearly overbought and at a major resistance level.

The CCI hit 308 on Thursday. I checked back three years – and that’s the highest level for the CCI in that period of time. RSI is also over-extended, up at 83.3. Such readings usually result in pull-backs. But the Chinese market occasionally sees “fat-tailed” events – statistically unusual, volatile movements. This could go higher – but probably not. It could be the start of a re-rating of the Chinese market as Hong Kong money and international money gets easy access to the market. Who knows? This move is still a minnow compared to the Dec.2012/Feb.2013 bear market counter-trend rally of 35%.

My preferred scenario: a pull back to the 20-Day MA – then a bounce off that. If that happens – we could be seeing the end of the secular bear market in China. And strong flow-on effects to Australian Resources. We can only hope. But there have been plenty of false dawns in the Chinese market over the past five years.

(China88 is an index composed of the biggest stocks on the Shenzen and Shanghai markets.)

COMMODITIES:COPPER FUTURES WEEKLY

Copper Weekly

Copper is one of the most important Industrial Metals and is often seen as a proxy for world economic conditions, particularly emerging economies which are engaged in infrastructure building and new residential housing.

It’s also an essential indicator for the health of the Australian mining industry which supplies much raw material to emerging economies, particularly China, the largest of the emerging economies.

Copper topped out in early 2011 – at much the same time as our Mining Index. The correlation is clear.

Since early 2012, whenever Copper gets up around the 100-Week MA (blue dashed line), it has reverted to the down side.

I still can see no reason to be obviously optimistic about Copper – it had a good week this week up 1.76%. But, until we see a significant break above the 100-Week MA, I’d be cautious about our miners.

Further falls and our miners should also fall – for at least a few weeks.

GOLD

GLD

XGD

US$ Gold had a good session on Friday up +1.16%, and down on the week -0.27%. (See upper chart.)

The GLD chart (US$ Gold) is very promising. It’s formed a Falling Wedge which is bullish. The 50-Day MA has crossed above the 100-Day MA and the POG bounced strongly off that level on Friday. This is a much healthier situation than the one which occurred the last time GLD had a positive 50/100 MA x-over. At that time, GLD was high above the x-over point. Too far, too fast. This time, the action looks sustainable. A break above the restraining line of the wedge should be bullish.

The lower chart shows the Australian Gold Miners Index. It has also seen a positive 50-100 DMA x-over. Newcrest Mining had a poor report on Thursday and fell heavily. Perhaps that’s got the bad news out of the way.

There are plenty of Australian Gold Miners performing much better than Newcrest (the largest miner in the index). A mid-sized producers, for example, is NST. There are also plenty who are doing worse. (That’s not a tip – do your own research on Gold stocks.) Gold stocks can be a mine-field (forgive the pun), performance is very much determined by individual circumstances – and not necessarily related to POG.

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

The Australian market was up this week: XJO +0.94%. American SP500 flat +0.01%. China up +5%, Germany down -0.78% (and fell off a cliff in the last hour of trading on Friday.) Japan up +1.59%. All over the show.

The American market has been in a long-term bull market for over two and a half years. Last week I said: “There’s no indication yet that this is about to change.” Well – now there is. Breadth has deteriorated. And that is now becoming a definite trend. And further deterioration in breadth and it’s difficult to see how the major American indices can continue bullish. Friday’s action in America was certainly bearish. One day, however, doesn’t make a trend. But, with breadth beginning to deteriorate, further downside in the major indices should lead to further falls. We’re coming up to the last week of the month. End-of-month often sees money flow into the market, so any deterioration might wait until August, which doesn’t have a good historical record. I’m certainly not confident of any further rises in the American market. I still can’t see that a major correction is on the cards. ZIRP should keep stocks the preferred investment option for Americans. Sentiment hasn’t reached extreme levels, which is usually a pre-cursor to a major correction. So – a pull back seems on the cards. August, in the past four years, hasn’t been favourable for the American market, down three out of the past four years.

Changes in the Chinese market were dramatic this week. These may have some fundamental basis – but appear to be largely driven by the looming HongKong/Shanghai connect. That allows Hong Kong and international investors much easier access to the Chinese market. How substantial that is likely to prove is another matter. China is currently overbought and seems likely to pull-back here.

Copper is still in a bear market. That could change quickly – but until the chart gets over the 100-Week MA, I’d be cautious.

Our Mining Index is now at the top of a wide trading range and looks ready to pull back. The Miners have been the mainstay of the recent advance in our market. So, if the Mining Index does pull back, that’s a negative for the broader market.

I think we’re probably going to see another poor month this year in August.

For daily updates – check http://redbackmarketreport.wordpress.com/

ETF: SLF – WEEKLY

SLF Weekly

SLF is the tracking stock for the Property Sector. This week it was up +1.09%. The stock is overbought and close to the May, 2013 highs. That’s been my target for this run up. I’ll be surprised if we see much more upside. With a weekly RSI at 76 and a CCI above +200, this is getting set up for a pull back.

Late June was ex-dividend week. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, SLF Dividend Yield is 5.9% – that’s a healthy jump from the previous 3.6%. Dividends are paid quarterly. The next ex-dividend date is late September. Dividend in the last quarter was .3251 per share.

(SLF is the Exchange Traded Fund which tracks the performance of the Property Sector on the Australian stock market.)

REDBACKA

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Morning Coffee, Saturday, 28 July, 2014

July 26, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

SP500 -0.48%, Dow Industrials -0.72%, Nasdaq 100 -0.45%, NY Composite -0.48%, Russell 2000 -1%, Transport -0.45%.

cgg

That’s not a healthy looking set of candles for this session. SPX, NDX and R2K all had gaps down at the opening and never recovered. R2K was a convincing break below the 50-Day MA. Dow 30 has marginally formed a double top. NYA shows a four-candle reversal pattern. Looking further ahead and being optimistic, most of the indices are still above the 20-Day MA. So they might find support there. The biggest concern is with the R2K. The 20-Day MA now seems likely to break below the 50-Day MA. It is the weakest index, so the recent advances in most of the indices have not been broadly based. That’s often a sign of an impending Short/medium term top.

Most of the biggest markets in Europe suffered heavy losses – falling off a cliff in the last hour. German Dax -1.53%, French CAC -1.82%, London FTSE -0.44%, Netherlands AEX -1.25%, Belgium BEL -0.88%, Italy MIB40 -0.9%. Spain went against the trend +0.25%

Here’s the detailed chart for SP500:

SPX

The move by the chart above resistance on Wednesday and Thursday now appears to be a false break. Both days were narrow range days so they were never convincing. Volume today was surprisingly light. The 50-Day MA is still around -2% lower. That’s likely to provide support. Fridays recently have been relatively strong. Today went against that recent history, that’s another reason to think that sentiment is changing for the worse and we’ll see more downside.

Commodities:

Commods

CRB Index +0.05%. Industrial Metals -0.6%. Copper -0.62% after being up in the middle of the trading session. Precious Metals +0.99%. PMs are now caught between the 50-Day and 20-Day MAs. US$ Gold +1.16%.

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP -0.14%. Rio -0.31%. Westpac -0.03%. ANZ flat 0.00% (after being much higher early in the session). EWA -0.63%. Ozzie Dollar -0.25%.

Yesterday the Australian XJO was down -0.1%. The day went according to the script I set out yesterday – down a little then up later in the day, to finish just below par. The rise in the afternoon may have been a result of traders expecting a better session in America – but that proved to be illusory.

Full Weekly Report tomorrow.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Morning Coffee, Friday, 25 July, 2014

July 25, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

SP500 +0.05%, Dow Industrials -0.02%, Nasdaq 100 -0.08%, New York Composite, +0.13%, Russell 2000 -0.16%, Transport -0.02%.

CGG

Little movement in the indices – a narrow range day with choppy intra-day action. Indecisive.

Here’s the SP500 chart:

Screen Shot 2014-07-25 at 9.36.56 AM

The past two days have both been narrow range days with a cumulative change +0.05%. Barely moving. MFI suggests the next move will be down.

Commodities:

Commods

Most commodities, with the exception of Industrial Metals were down. CRB Index -0.19% after being up early in the session. Energy down -0.65%. Industrial Metals up strongly +1.19%. Copper +1.87%. Precious Metals down heavily -1.27%. US$ Gold -1.01%.

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP flat +0.00%. Rio +0.79%. Rio is overbought, so there may not be a lot more upside. Westpac -0.25%. ANZ +0.11% after being well down early in the session. EWA -0.3%. Ozzie Dollar -0.29%. Adjusting for the currency effect, Australian shares (EWA) were flat in this session.

Australia had a narrow range day yesterday with a positive bias +0.2%. Gold Miners will be hit hard today, especially with the influence of Newcrest – but overall, I’d expect a similar day to yesterday, probably with a negative bias. But Friday lately in New York has been positive – so we might see some upward movement later in the day. All speculative at this stage.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Postprandials, Thursday, 24 July, 2014

July 24, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up 0.2%. A narrow range day distinguished by choppy trading action and higher than average volume (on a 20-Day basis). Today’s candle was an “inside” day. Altogether an indecisive day’s action with bears and bulls battling for supremacy.

Screen Shot 2014-07-24 at 9.44.22 PM

The market today was helped by an intra-day surge in the Miners. Up +0.6% from low to close. Not bad after an early morning fall. But we could be looking at a short term top in the Miners. Relative Strength Index is showing overbought with a reading of 76. It also shows a potential double top. We have to wait for more evidence before pronouncing last rites – but it’s not looking good. I doubt there’s much more left in this run.

The big event today was the fall in Newcrest down more than -6% on the day after a poor report. Terminal? Probably not. But such falls usually bring about more downside. The problem with such a fall in Newcrest is that it skews the Gold Mining Index which is heavily weighted to Newcrest.

The XJO has now been up 10 of the past eleven days. The only down day was so small it didn’t even register to two decimal points. That’s a flat finish. RSI is now showing overbought at 74.1. Given that reading we’re not far off a short term top.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized
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