Volume Dropping. Morning Java. Saturday, 25 October, 2014.

October 25, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

cgg

Nasdaq Composite +0.69%. New York Composite +0.6%. Russell 2000 +0.21%. Dow Industrials +0.76%. SP500 +0.71%.

After an initial drop off, Indices were generally quite strong. Another dip occurred during the lunch session, but that was shrugged off in the afternoon session. For the second time in three days, R2K under-performed. R2K led the market out of the recent swoon, so this is worth watching. It may or may not mean something.

Volume is steadily dropping, but the market continues on its march upwards. Again, it may or may not mean something. At this stage, although buying is light, there’s not much interest in selling. So the market keeps going up. Dropping volume does make it vulnerable to a pull-back – but not necessarily.

Here’s the detailed SP500 chart:

spx

The drop-off in volume is clearly evident in this chart.

The up trend from 15 October has been strong. Indicators are nowhere near overbought. The chart is now getting up to the 50-Day and 100-Day MAs. The 20-Day MA provided no resistance. The next two might be a little more difficult. Just above those two MAs lies an important horizontal resistance level – then the resistance of the high on 19 September. Given the pace of the current move, that looks a likely goal. Maybe sometime next week we’ll see a pull back.

Commodities:

commods

CRB Index down -0.81%. Energy was down -0.98%. That group remains in a sideways consolidation. Industrial Metals down -0.58%. Copper was flat +0.09%. GLD -0.14%. U.S.$ -0.18%.

OZ Stocks in NY:

BHP +0.66%. Rio -0.24%. Westpac +1.21%. ANZ +0.98%. EWA +1.01%. Ozzie Dollar +0.28%.

Full Weekly Report tomorrow.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Rally Continues. Morning Java. Friday, 24 October, 2014

October 24, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

CGG

Nasdaq Composite +1.6%. New York Composite +1.09%. Russell 2000 +1.79%. Dow Industrial +1.32%. SP500 +1.23%.

Wednesday’s market was rattled by news of terrorist activity in Canada. That was forgotten today. A blip occurred in the market in the afternoon when news of a possible ebola case was found in New York. That knocked the top off a very strong market – but really – it was just a blip. The negative events of the past two days have got to the nervous nellies – but the market has a lot of power behind it. Nasdaq today recorded the third Trin reading <0.5 in the past four days. 5-Trin (cumulative 5-Day Trin line) on the Nasdaq is now down to 3. That's an extraordinarily low reading. Buyers will have to run out of ammunition soon, but there's no sign of it yet. A few jitters are appearing, but no sign yet that the bears might return.

Here's the detailed S&P500 chart:

spx

The chart is getting back into a congestion zone and close to the 50-Day and 100-Day MAs. Those factors are likely to slow this drive higher. Indicators are still nowhere near overbought, so this might have plenty of legs yet.

Commodities:

commods

CRB Index up +0.77% after a strong move by Energy +1.74%. Despite that strong move, Energy remains in a sideways consolidation. Industrial Metals Group flat -0.07%. Copper up +1%, but other metals were generally down. Iron Ore had a big fall last night, down -1.9%. It is now back to $80. GLD -0.69%. Despite that, Gold Mining Index in America (GDX) was up +0.59%. It’s showing a lot of stickiness at a major support level. That’s a good sign.

OZ stocks in NY:

BHP -0.41%. Rio -0.57%. Westpac +1.43%. ANZ +0.78%. EWA +0.53%. Ozzie Dollar -0.23%.

We’ll see some divergence today in the indices – but the Financials should power on up today. They’ve been up seven out of the past eight days. Today looks like eight out of nine.

Amazon reported after-hours. Down about -11%. That might put a dampener on sentiment today.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Bleaahhhh. Postprandials. Thursday, 23 October, 2014.

October 23, 2014 Leave a comment

This evening I went to my grand-daughters Musical Soiree at Eagle Junction School in Clayfield, here in Brisbane. I can assure you it was a much more interesting, and energising event thant we had on the Australian stock market today.

XJO up +0.05%. Volume was average. Doing a quick eyeball, today’s range was the lowest since late July, 2014. Better than watching grass growing but not much.

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 9.09.47 PM

There we have it. A pause right at the Upper Bollinger Band. A big down day tomorrow would like see this go back to the lower Bollinger Band.

I don’t really expect that. After such a strong rebound, with lots of wide-range days, I’d expect a few days, possible to the upside, but relatively narrow range – then a fall to the downside.

I think there’s a bit more in this to the upside, before another move down. That’s the interesting one to watch.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Markets Rattled. Morning Java, Thursday, 23 October, 2014

October 23, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

cgg

Nasdaq Composite -0.83%. New York Composite -0.9%. Russell 2000 -1.44%. Dow Jones Industrial -0.92%. SP500 -0.73%.

The American markets were relatively subdued in the morning session, then in the lunch session, news came through about possible terrorist activities in Canada and the market fell. Such events usually don’t have lasting effects unless follow-up action occurs. At this stage, it looks like a hiccough.

Technically, however, R2K shows a bearish engulfing candle. This is one of the best performing one-day candle formations. So it needs to be noted. Three other indices show “dark cloud cover” candles. Not as reliable as “bearish engulfing” but a concern. SP500 wasn’t quite so negative.

Detailed SP500 chart:

SP500

SP500 has paused at the 20-Day MA. That’s not unexpected. If we now get another day of follow-through selling, then the rebound from 15 October may be over. Then we can expect at least a retest of that level.

Commodities:

commods

CRB Index down -0.97%. Energy was again the main culprit. Industrial Metals Group up +0.44%. Spot Copper down -0.35%. I don’t have an up to date price for Iron Ore. GLD -0.57%. US$ Index continued its move up +0.44%.

Oz Stocks in New York:

BHP -1.4%. Rio -2.85%. Westpac -0.77%. ANZ -0.79%. EWA -0.37%. Ozzie Dollar flat -0.03%

Given how much we were up yesterday (too much) and a flat Ozzie Dollar, those were poor figures for Australia today.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

Seven Days and Counting. Postprandials, Wednesday, 22 October, 2014

October 22, 2014 Leave a comment

XJO up +1.14% on average volume.

Screen Shot 2014-10-22 at 9.38.44 PM

Today was the seventh day up in a row. That’s rare. It could, of course, keep going further up without a break. Thirteen days up is not unknown. But the odds are now tilted to, at least, a pause in play.

Today’s wide-range day, coming at the top of a short term up trend, is a cause of concern. At the beginning of a trend, that’s fair enough – as the index bursts away from extreme negativity. But when it comes after six up days, it looks like excessive exuberance.

The chart has reached the top of the Bollinger Bands. Another reason to think we might pause.

Indicators aren’t overbought – so this could go higher before a significant pull-back. That seems likely. At this stage, the index seems to want to go up to the major S/R line on the chart and the 50-Day MA. That’s about 60 points away – which is about the range of today’s movement. I doubt we’ll get there in one day. But once we’re up there, I think we’ll find some reasonable resistance.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

SPX Four Days Up. Morning Java. Wednesday, 22 October, 2014

October 22, 2014 Leave a comment

In America:

cgg

Nasdaq Composite 2.4%. New York Composite +1.68%. Russell 2000 +1.63%. Dow Jones Industrial +1.31%. SP500 1.96%.

Another very strong day. SPX now up four days in a row but the momentum shows no sign of slackening. Volume was up a little on the previous day. Apple Inc. was up +2.72% following its after-hours report the previous session. That helped sentiment and thrust the Nasdaq and SP500 to higher levels.

Nasdaq Trin was again exceptionally low 0.48. That’s the second day in a row <5. The last time we saw a Trin <5 was back in April, which was followed by a fall in the Nasdaq by more than -2%. This is beginning to look too exuberant. But with reporting season under way, this could go on for a while if the reports continue to be good. Yahoo has just reported after hours and is currently up about +1.4%. Less well-known tech stocks reporting after hours were also generally up. The American market was also aided by exceptionally good Existing Homes Sales data up +2.4% in September – the best result in the past year.

Here's the detailed chart for the SP500:

spx

Today, the SP500 gapped up across resistance at the opening and just kept on going. That’s an extremely bullish sign. Momentum indicators are nowhere near overbought – so momentum could keep going for a while. Next major hurdle appears to be the 100-Day Moving Average.

Commodities:

Commodities

Everything in Commodities was also looking good last night. CRB Index up +0.69%. Livestock was the only Group down in the session. Industrial Metals Group +1.11%. Copper +1.6%. Spot Iron Ore +0.4%. GLD +0.18%. Those good commodities’ figures were in spite of a solid US$, up +0.53%. The US$ was up against all major currencies, with the Euro falling -0.64%

Oz Stocks in NY:

BHP +0.86%. Rio +1.37%. Westpac +0.17%. ANZ +0.99%. ANZ is looking overbought in the short term after being up six days in a row in NY. EWA +0.65%. EWA has also been up six days in a row, but hasn’t been as strong as ANZ. The banks and EWA look ripe for a bit of profit taking.

Our market took a rest day yesterday. But today looks likely to make seven days up in a row. That’s getting long in the tooth.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized

ZZZZZZZZZ. Postprandials, Tuesday, 21 October, 2014

October 21, 2014 Leave a comment

The Australian market today was beset by Sleeping Sickness. Up +0.11%. The range was the narrowest since 1 September. Narrow range days like today often sometimes herald a change of trend. But don’t mean much unless the next day is seriously down.

Here’s the detailed chart for the XJO:

xjo

We’ve had six days up in a row. Seven days up in a row is rare. Indicators are nowhere near overbought. So, if we do get a set-back it is likely to be short-lived.

Here’s the fly-in-the-ointment:

XXJ

Financials x-Property (XXJ) halted today right at a massive Support/Resistance line. Unless it gets over that – the current short term up trend is in doubt.

Redbacka

Categories: Uncategorized
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